GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 5 to 7 cents lower; HRS 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside in overnight trade but saw an uptick in buying interest going into the break. Trade concerns continue to garner the majority of attention in the marketplace. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher this morning while the U.S. dollar index is near unchanged. Equity futures are posting impressive gains as S&P futures are up over 1%.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang warned the country is prepared for “shocks that exceed expectations,” as anticipation builds over renewed U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump. Speaking at the China Development Forum in Beijing, Li emphasized the need for global cooperation and open markets amid rising economic uncertainty. Addressing international business leaders and Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Li called for greater collaboration, stating that China and the U.S. “stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation.”
A public hearing today by the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office could be quite significant in several ways, especially given the growing scrutiny over China’s maritime and trade practices. The hearing is expected to examine China’s maritime, shipbuilding and logistics sectors — specifically whether state-led practices have led to unfair advantages or violations of trade commitments (like WTO obligations). The inquiry was initiated in response to a petition from labor unions, including the AFL-CIO, alleging that China uses state subsidies and control over key logistics infrastructure to undercut global competitors and gain an unfair edge. The hearing and its record could form the evidentiary basis for future litigation at the WTO or support unilateral U.S. trade enforcement, like new tariffs or sanctions under Section 301.
AgRural cut its Brazilian soybean production forecast by 2.3 MMT to 165.9 MMT, as hot and dry conditions “continued to wreak havoc” on the crop since mid-February in far southern Brazil. The cut was driven Rio Grande do Sul, the only state in Brazil that will harvest a smaller crop than last year. AgRural raised its Brazilian corn production forecast by 600,000 MT to 121.8 MMT due to upward adjustments to expected safrinha production, “based on adjusted productivity trendlines, as is traditional at this time of year. These lines will be replaced by field surveys starting in April,” AgRural noted.
CORN: May corn futures continue to trade in a tight range. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $4.64 1/4, which is reinforced by resistance at $4.70 1/4. Support comes in at $4.58 3/4 then $4.55 on continued selling pressure.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures continue to struggle overcoming the 10-day moving average, currently serving up resistance at $10.12. Additional strength targets last week’s high at $10.21 3/4. Support stands at the psychological $10.00 mark then $9.94.
WHEAT: May SRW futures led weakness overnight. The psychological $5.50 mark lent support overnight, while additional selling targets the March 12 low of $5.46 1/2. Resistance stands at $5.58 3/4 then $5.63 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of selling pressure following Friday’s key reversal from contract highs. April live cattle futures ended Friday lower after an impressive seven-day string of gains. While followthrough selling seems likely, Friday’s supportive Cattle on Feed Report and firmer cash cattle trade could limit selling pressure. Wholesale beef ended Friday mixed as Choice cutout fell $2.61 to $325.45 while Select rose 26 cents to $309.62.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, support by strength in pork cutout. Pork cutout continues to trade between $95.00 and $100.00, most recent rebounding from the former mark. Cutout rose a dollar to $96.86 Friday, led by strength in loins. April lean hogs continue to trade in a choppy sideways range and are nearing the lower end of the recent range, also lending support. The CME lean hog index fell 32 cents to $88.88 as of March 20, a fresh for-the-move low.