GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 1 to 3 cents higher; HRW 3 to 5 cents higher; HRS 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat led strength overnight with soybeans following modestly to the upside. Corn struggled to maintain bullish momentum from Monday’s gain. Equity markets continue to wobble near recent lows, attention will quickly turn to the Federal Reserves meeting here the next couple of days. Gold futures hit a fresh record high overnight, while front-month crude oils were also higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 200 points higher this morning.
President Donald Trump stated that Chinese leader Xi Jinping would visit Washington in the “not too distant future” as trade tensions escalate between the two nations. Trump has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, citing Beijing’s failure to curb the flow of illegal fentanyl. The Wall Street Journal reported discussions about a potential “birthday summit” in June, though Trump did not confirm a specific date. China has accused the U.S. of using fentanyl as a pretext for tariffs, while both sides remain deadlocked on trade talks. Despite escalating tensions, Trump has signaled openness to a new trade deal.
Harvest continues to roll on in Brazil, with central areas of the country nearing completion. Late planted beans are being impacted by dry weather. Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean production estimate unchanged at 170 MMT and his corn production estimate unchanged at 123 MMT, maintaining a neutral bias for both. Cordonnier maintain his Argentine production estimates at 48 MMT for soybeans and 46 MMT for corn, maintaining a neutral bias for each.
As U.S./Canada trade tensions rise, farm-state lawmakers are urging the Trump administration to confront Canada over its dairy trade policies. Lawmakers and dairy industry groups argue that Canada is failing to meet its U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) commitments, particularly on dairy market access and export limits. In a bipartisan letter (link) to key trade officials, lawmakers called for the administration to prioritize these issues in USMCA sunset review talks and broader trade negotiations. They criticized Canada’s restrictive Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs), which limit U.S. dairy exports, and accused Canada of exploiting loopholes to circumvent export caps on dairy protein.
CORN: May corn futures are struggling to maintain any bullish momentum. Support stands at $4.55 1/2 then $4.51 1/2 on continued selling pressure. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $4.64 3/4 then $4.70 3/4 on strength.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures traded in a tight range overnight. Resistance comes in at yesterday’s high of $10.21 3/4, a close above that mark would indicate a breakout from the recent downtrend. Additional resistance comes in at $10.24 1/2. Support comes in at $10.10 1/4 then $10.00 1/2 on resurgent selling pressure.
WHEAT: May SRW futures continue to lead strength. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at yesterday’s high of $5.75 1/4, which is reinforced by resistance at $5.88. Support comes in at $5.69 1/4, the 40-day moving average, then $5.62 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. April live cattle futures have closed higher for four consecutive session. Confirmation of robust cash market strength late last week led to a flurry of buying yesterday, as last week’s cash cattle average climbed $5.02 from the previous week to $205.30. Trade is likely to be pushed late into the week again this week given the Cattle on Feed Report. Wholesale beef posted strong gains Monday as Choice cutout climbed $2.89 to $321.16 while Select rose $1.58 to $307.90.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as choppy cash fundamentals weigh on the market. April futures struggled to break above the March 10 highs yesterday, which stands as initial resistance. The CME lean hog index is down another 27 cents to $89.28 as of March 14, a fresh for-the-move low. Pork cutout was up 27 cents on Monday, led by strength in loins and bellies, though all other cuts posted losses. Hog futures could be supported on news that U.S. pork exports to China will be fully restored, according to a report from the National Pork Producers Council.