GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 7 to 9 cents lower.
Soybeans: 21 to 24 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 8 to 10 cents lower; HRW 5 to 7 cents lower; HRS 4 to 6 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each gapped lower on last night’s open as tariffs proved to be more restrictive than expected. Key will be how prices react today, as each is still above the March lows. Front-month crude oil futures are sharply lower this morning, giving back the last two weeks of gains. The U.S. dollar index is over 2000 points lower and at the lowest level since last September.
On Wednesday, April 2, President Donald Trump unveiled an extensive new tariff strategy during a Rose Garden ceremony at the White House. Dubbed “Liberation Day,” the announcement marks a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, intensifying global trade tensions and sparking concerns about inflation and economic disruption. They are the realization of a core pillar of Trump’s 2024 campaign. Link to White House fact sheet. Overall, the import tax rate has shot up to 22% in the past couple months, up from just 2.5% in 2024, reaching the highest levels since around 1910. A comprehensive review of yesterday’s tariff announcement can be found in Jim Wiesemeyers’s Policy Update.
The U.S. dollar index plunged to the lowest mark since October of last year overnight. Interest rates rose to the lower level since the same time. Lower rates are expected to lessen demand for the dollar and have led to weakness in currency markets. While that is generally bullish for other assets, this year has seen a divergence from that norm, an occurrence that has not happened since 2008.
Export sales for the week ended March 27:
Corn: Net sales of 1.173 MMT for 2024-25 were up 13% from the previous week and 40% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for South Korea and Mexico. Sales came in the middle of pre-report expectations ranging from 800,000 MT to 1.6 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 410,200 MT for 2024-25 were up 21% from the previous week but down 9% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Taiwan and Indonesia. China switched some sales from unknown destinations. Sales were within pre-report expectations from 250,000 to 800,000 MT.
Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 MT for 2024-25 were up noticeably from last week and 40% from the four-week average. Ecuador led purchases, followed by Japan. Sales topped expectations ranging from (100,000) to 300,000 MT.
CORN: May corn futures opened lower and pivoted near the $4.50 mark overnight. Support comes in at $4.47 1/4 then the March low at $4.42 on continued selling. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $4.52 before challenging the 10-day moving average at $4.56 3/4.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures opened sharply lower overnight. Continued selling finds support at the psychological $10.00 mark then the March 4 low of $9.91. Resistance stands at the 10-day moving average at $10.17 then $10.22 on a bounce.
WHEAT: May SRW futures are trading near recent lows. Bulls are seeking to hold support at the psychological $5.25 mark which is reinforced by the contract low of $5.17 1/2. Resistance comes in at $5.36 3/4 then the 10-day moving average at $5.40.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open lower amidst an overall risk-off tone in the marketplace. While nearby futures continue to trade at a modest discount to the cash market, outside markets are likely to be an anchor on prices today. As has been the norm in recent weeks, cash cattle trade has had a slow start to the week as feedlots hold out for higher prices and packers kick the can down the road as cutting margins remain deep in the red. Wholesale beef gave up a portion of Tuesday’s big gains yesterday. Choice cutout fell $2.32 to $339.90 while Select sunk $3.24 to $318.83. USDA reported net beef sales of 9,300 MT for 2025, up 16% from the previous week but down 19% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower as outside market selling pressure weighs heavily on the market. Pork cutout falling below prior support is likely to encourage bears as well. After trading in a range from $95 to $100 for a month and a half, cutout broke below that range Wednesday. Cutout fell $1.81 to $93.70 as all cuts posted losses on the day, though bellies and loins led the way lower. Meanwhile, the CME lean hog index has shown modest signs of strength, rising another 15 cents to $88.80. Falling cutout is likely to make additional cash market gains difficult. USDA reported net pork sales of 53,000 MT for 2025—a marketing year high, up 66% from the previous week and 88% from the four-week average.