GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 4 to 6 cents lower; HRW 7 to 9 cents lower; HRS 3 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn saw relative strength overnight, building on yesterday’s strength. Soybeans and wheat favored the downside. Corn saw a pickup in buying interest following this morning’s export sales report, while wheat saw added selling pressure. Outside markets are mixed this morning as the U.S. dollar index is around 500 points higher, while front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged.
China’s soybean imports from the U.S. jumped 84.1% from year ago in the first two months of 2025. China brought in 9.13 MMT of soybeans in the first two months of 2025, up from 4.96 MMT last year. Competition from Brazil is expected to limit imports in the coming months. Imports from Brazil in January to February fell 48.4% from a year ago to 3.59 MMT. The recent harvest surge should allow more beans to flow to China from Brazil in the next couple months.
The Federal Reserve kept their overnight lending rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, though still expect to cut rates twice in 2025. Chaiman Powell said on Wednesday that the Trump administration’s policies, including hefty import tariffs, have tilted the economy towards slower growth and at least temporarily higher inflation. Powell noted high uncertainty several times during his presser following yesterday’s interest rate decision. President Donald Trump has renewed calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, arguing that lower rates would support his tariff policies.
Export sales for the week ended March 13:
Corn: Net sales of 1.497 MMT for 2024-25 were up 55% from the previous week and 45% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan, South Korea and Mexico. Sales came in the upper end of pre-report expectations ranging from 800,000 MT to 1.7 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 352,600 MT for 2024-25 were down 53% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China. Sales were below pre-report expectations from 400,000 to 900,000 MT.
Wheat: Net sales reductions of 248,800 MT for 2024-25 were a marketing year low. Sales were well below expectations ranging from 300,000 to 700,000 MT. Panama, unknown destinations and Egypt led cancellations. Sales for 2025-26 totaled 470,900 MT.
CORN: May corn futures continue to see choppy price action. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $4.64 1/4, the 10-day moving average, which capped overnight gains. Additional resistance lies at $4.68 3/4. Support comes in at $4.58 3/4 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures continue to ride the downtrend lower. Resistance stands at $10.13 then this week’s high of $10.21 3/4 on a bounce, while support comes in at the psychological $10.00 mark then $9.94 on continued selling pressure.
WHEAT: May SRW futures are threatening a break of uptrend support. Bulls are seeking to close prices above $5.65 today to keep the recent uptrend intact. Resistance above that mark stands at $5.68 1/2. Support comes in at $5.58 then the psychological $5.50 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength, though overbought conditions could limit gains after the open. Futures were supported by strength in the wholesale beef market on Wednesday as Choice cutout surged $6.29 to $329.61. Meanwhile, Select lost 55 cents to $308.68. Cutout started moving higher following last week’s surge higher in cash cattle prices. Cash cattle trade has yet to develop this week, awaiting Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report. USDA reported export sales of 10,200 MT for 2025, down 29% from the previous week and 40% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by technical buying. April futures fell near key technical support levels on Wednesday, which limited selling activity. Bulls are looking to bounce prices from that level. Prices are also likely to be support by steep discounts to the cash market. The CME lean hog index is up another 9 cents to $89.41, but USDA data points to another turn lower to end the week. Pork cutout continues to inch lower near recent lows, falling 45 cents to $95.19 Wednesday, led by losses in ribs. USDA reported net pork sales of 18,100 MT for 2025 – a marketing year low, down 11% from the previous week and 40% from the four-week average.