GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Wheat: SRW 8 to 10 cents lower; HRW 12 to 14 cents lower; HRS 7 to 9 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat futures led weakness overnight with corn following to the downside. Soybeans saw action on either side of unchanged. Some corrective selling is to be expected given recent strong gains across the grain and soy complex. Outside markets are supportive this morning as equity markets are solidly firmer this morning. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 400 points lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 120,000 MT of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2024-25 marketing year.
President Donald Trump pledged he will still apply tariffs to phones, computers and popular consumer electronics, downplaying an exemption as a procedural step in his overall push to remake U.S. trade. The late-Friday reprieve — exempting a range of popular electronics from 125% tariffs on China and a 10% flat rate around the globe — is temporary and a part of the longstanding plan to apply a different, specific levy to the sector. The White House released a corresponding memo indicating the exemptions also extend to changes in small-parcel shipping duties. Trump had moved to end the so-called “de minimis” exemption. China’s government said the decision to exempt certain consumer electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs is a small step toward rectifying its wrongdoings and urged Washington to do more to revoke the levies.
China imported 3.5 MMT of soybeans in March, down 36.8% from year-ago and the lowest total for the month since 2008, amid Brazilian soybean harvest delays and as processors shied away from U.S. shipments. For the first three months of this year, Chinese soybean imports totaled 17.11 MMT, down 7.9% from the same period last year.
Analyst APK-Inform said Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest could increase by 8% to 57.5 MMT thanks to a larger corn crop of 29.2 MMT, 18% more than in 2024. The consultancy said Ukraine can also harvest 21.5 MMT of wheat and 5.3 MMT of barley. APK-Inform said Ukrainian grain exports could increase by 11% to 42.6 MMT in 2025-26, including 24.5 MMT of corn and 15 MMT of wheat.
CORN: May corn futures saw corrective selling overnight. Initial support comes in at $4.85 while continued selling eyes support at $4.82. Prices are extended well above the 10-day moving average, which lies at $4.74. Resistance stands at $4.90 1/4 then $4.95 on resurgent strength.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. A continuation of last week’s strength has bulls eyeing psychological $10.50 resistance, while profit-taking has bears looking to break support at $10.35 before tackling 100-day moving average support at $10.31.
WHEAT: May SRW futures gave up a portion of Friday’s gains overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $5.45 1/4, the 20-day moving average, on continued selling pressure. Resistance stands at the psychological $5.50 mark then the 40-day moving average at $5.52 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone amid steep discounts to the cash market, but the expectation for weaker cash trade again this week could weigh on prices. Last week’s cash cattle average is expected to fall around $4.00 from the previous week as the steep drop in futures pulled negotiations lower. Wholesale beef continues to consolidate, as Choice cutout fell 7 cents to $334.22 while Select sunk $1.00 to $313.96 Friday. With USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report scheduled for Thursday afternoon and markets closed on Friday, packers are expected to remain cautious in their pursuit of cash cattle again this week.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of last week’s strength, though sharp losses in the CME lean hog index could limit gains after the open. The index is down another 81 cents to $86.86 as of April 10, marking the steepest drop since Feb. 21. Meanwhile, pork cutout climbed $2.26 to $91.96 Friday as all cuts posted gains on the day. Butts, loins and bellies led the way higher. Movement surged to 430.92 loads, indicating continued robust demand at relatively lower prices.