GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 8 to 10 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat steady to 2 cents higher; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight while corn and wheat saw modest selling pressure. Each saw increase buying efforts into the break. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are bouncing from recent lows and the U.S. dollar index is over 400 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.
A drier bias will continue across the Midwest for the next 10 days, according to World Weather Inc. Rains will also be limited in the Plains, though scattered showers are possible in central and northern areas of the region next week. A strong disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico is becoming better organized and should reach hurricane intensity prior to reaching the Louisiana coast late Wednesday. That could bring heavy rains into the Delta and Southeast.
The Paraguay River fell to a record low in Paraguay’s capital Asuncion, with water levels depleted by a severe drought upriver in Brazil. The Parana River in Argentina is also low around the grain export hub at Rosario. Both the Paraguay and Parana rivers start in Brazil and are important routes for soybeans, corn and other trade. Low water levels are affecting shipments, though the impact was capped as it is not peak export season.
IKAR agricultural consultancy cut its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop to 82.2 MMT from 83.8 MMT. The firm now expects Russia to export 44 MMT of wheat in 2024-25, down 500,000 MT from its prior outlook.
CORN: December corn futures traded around unchanged most of the overnight session. Initial resistance stands at the 40-day moving average at $4.07 1/2 which is backed by $4.12 3/4. Support lies at $4.03 1/2 then the psychological $4.00 mark.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw relative strength overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $10.20, the 40-day moving average.
WHEAT: December SRW futures favored the downside overnight as prices continue to consolidate from the recent push higher. Recent selling pressure has stalled at the 40-day moving average. Resistance stands at $5.75 while support is served up by $5.60 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open lower as prices continue to break down technically. Traders were anticipating a short-term bottom in the cash market last week and were sorely disappointed as cash cattle prices were lower for the sixth consecutive week, sparking sustained selling pressure into the end of the week. Traders will likely look to confirmation of a cash market low before becoming active buyers in futures. Wholesale beef prices ended Friday lower as Choice cutout sunk $2.10 to $309.41 and Select fell 66 cents to $296.12, both giving up the gains seen earlier in the week.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower in a continuation of last week’s selling pressure. The CME lean hog index is down 19 cents to $86.24 as of Sept. 5, breaking a two-day uptick. Traders took the modest bounce in the index as a “sell the news” event, with futures breaking lower from recent highs as the index turned higher. Pork cutout climbed $1.23 to $96.10 on Friday, led by gains in hams. That was the first daily uptick in four days, though movement fell from high levels earlier in the week to 285.66 loads.