GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher; HRS 1 to 3 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn traded narrowly near unchanged most of the overnight session before climbing higher into the break, soybeans favored the downside but firmed this morning, wheat saw relative weakness but faced limited selling pressure. Weaker than expected jobs data has outside markets seeing heightened volatility this morning. The U.S. dollar index is trading around 150 points lower while front-month crude oil futures are seeing modest corrective gains.
The US economy 142K jobs in August 2024, more than a downwardly revised 89K in July but below forecasts of 160K. BLS data showed the unemployment rate ticking down 0.1% to 4.2%, in line with expectations. Weaker than expected jobs data has traders betting the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in their upcoming meeting.
Updated results on milling quality in this year’s rain-hit French soft wheat crop showed test weights were slightly better than previously estimated but still mostly below common market standards. In a third round of results from a wheat quality survey conducted with crop institute Arvalis, France’s ag ministry said 28% of the soft wheat crop scored test weights above the common standard of 76 kilos per hectoliter. That was up from 26% in the previous results last week but still far below the five-year average of 76%. The ministry noted 74% of the crop had an average protein content above 11%, unchanged from the previous results but below the five-year average of 85%. Hagberg falling numbers, another measure of milling quality, showed 99% of the crop with a reading above 240 seconds, unchanged from the previous report but above the 87% average.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index slipped 0.5% in August, the second straight small monthly decline, as decreases in sugar, meat and cereal grains outweighed increases for vegoils and dairy products. The August index was down 1.1% from last year. Compared to year-ago, prices declined 12.0% for cereal grains and 23.1% for sugar, while they rose 3.6% for meats, 14.3% for dairy and 8.1% for vegoils.
Export sales for the week ended August 29:
Corn: Net sales reductions of 173,100 MT for 2023-24 – a marketing year low. Net sales totaled 1.823 MMT for 2024-25, which were well above expectations. Increases for new-crop came primarily for Mexico and unknown destinations. Traders expected sales from -100,000 to 100,000 MT for 2023-24 and 700,000 MT to 1.4 MMT for 2024-25. Exports of 1.061 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales reductions of 228,000 MT for 2023-24, a marketing year low. Net sales totaled 1.659 MMT for 2024-25. Increases for new-crop came primarily for China and unknown destinations. Sales were below expectations from -200,000 to 200,000 MT for 2023-24 and within expectations of 800,000 MT to 2.0 MMT for 2024-25. Exports of 491,100 MT.
Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 MT for 2024-25, down 36% from the previous week and 17% from the four-week average. Sales came in the lower end of expectations from 300,000 to 600,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports totaled 638,100 MT, a marketing year high.
CORN: December corn futures butted up against this week’s highs overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $4.13 1/2 before tackling additional resistance at $4.17 1/2. Support stems from the 40-day moving average at $4.08, which capped losses yesterday.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to struggle to overcome 40-day moving average resistance at $10.21 1/4, which sparked modest selling overnight. Additional strength would find resistance at the psychological $10.25 mark. Support comes in at yesterday’s low of $10.10 then the psychological $10.00 mark.
WHEAT: December SRW futures recovered a portion of yesterday’s losses overnight. Initial resistance stands at $5.80 3/4 with further strength looking to overcome $5.85 resistance. Bulls are looking to hold support at $5.66 1/2, the 40-day moving average, on resurgent selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a weaker tone in a continuation of Thursday’s selling pressure. Cash trade picked up midweek though volume remained fairly light. Still, trade occurring at roughly $2.00 lower in both the Southern Plains and the northern market have traders concerned that declining cash cattle prices are likely to continue for the near future, contrary to most cash cattle sources’ anticipations. Wholesale beef prices ended Thursday lower as Choice fell 9 cents to $311.51 and Select sunk $2.61 to $296.78. USDA reported net beef sales of 16,500 MT for 2024, down 4% from the previous week and 7% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by rebounding cash hog prices. The CME lean hog index is up 16 cents to $86.43 as of Sept. 4, the second consecutive daily gain. Pork cutout fell another 42 cents to $94.87, the lowest since Aug. 21. Hams and bellies continue to show relative weakness, dragging cutout lower. Movement remained quite strong at 371.26 loads, which could support cutout values in the next few days. USDA reported net pork sales of 20,800 MT for 2024, down 51% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average.