GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 7 to 9 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 5 to 7 cents lower, HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside in overnight trade. Overnight weakness has been bought up at the start of daytime trade over the past week, a trend bulls are looking to continue today. Outside markets are favorable this morning as front-month crude oil futures are rebounding from recent lows and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 200 points lower.
Private sector businesses added 99K workers in August, the lowest number since January 2021, following a downwardly revised 111K in July and well below forecasts of 145K, reported by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. The continued slowing of the jobs market has traders betting that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the 25 basis points previously anticipated. Tomorrow’s jobs number from BLS will give additional insight into the jobs market.
Commodity brokerage firm StoneX lowered its corn crop estimate to 15.127 billion bu. (15.207 billion bu. last month), though the yield was raised 0.6 bu. to 182.9 bu. per acre. For soybeans, StoneX raised its production forecast to 4.575 billion bu. (4.483 billion bu. last month) on a yield of 53 bu. per acre, which increased 0.4 bu. per acre. The firm’s estimates are based on surveys of its customers and assume USDA’s harvested acreage. USDA’s initial estimates in August were 15.147 billion bu. for corn on a yield of 183.1 bu. per acre and 4.589 billion bu. for soybeans on a yield of 53.2 bu. per acre.
Recent market talk had Chinese buyers purchasing multiple cargoes of U.S. soybeans via shipment from the Gulf and PNW. An improvement in Chinese crushing margins has increased demand for soybeans as the U.S. harvest begins. While Chinese crush margins remain negative, they have recovered to levels not seen in more than two months, according to Shanghai JC Intelligence Co.
Low water conditions have led to several barges running aground along a key stretch of the lower Mississippi River, the U.S. Coast Guard told Reuters. The Coast Guard said in an email it has received reports and responded to several groundings over the last week along the Greenville-Vicksburg sections of the lower Mississippi River. American Commercial Barge Line warned that customers should expect one- to two-day delays for river shipments “due to reduced navigable space in certain areas,” the company said. The water level at Memphis is lower than it was last year: It is forecast to drop to -7.5 feet by Sept. 18, NOAA data shows. Rates for barges coming from the St. Louis, Missouri, area were 65% higher in late August than the three-year average, according to Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, and USDA data.
Due to Monday’s holiday, export sales data for the week ended Aug. 29 will be pushed back to Friday morning.
CORN: December corn futures gave up a portion of Wednesday’s gain overnight. Resistance stems from yesterday’s high of $4.13 1/2 then $4.20. Support lies at $4.07 3/4, the 40-day moving average, then $4.02.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures turned lower overnight. Resistance at $10.21, the 40-day moving average, limited gains on Wednesday. That is quickly backed by psychological resistance at $10.25. Support lies at the psychological $10.00 mark.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw profit-taking overnight. Initial resistance stems from $5.80, which is reinforced by $5.85 resistance. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $5.66, the 40-day moving average.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as beef demand remains robust. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Wednesday with Choice firming 93 cents to $311.60 and Select sinking 72 cents to $299.39, though movement surged to 169 loads, indicating consumer beef demand may not wane as much as anticipated following the unofficial end of the summer grilling season. Traders will closely watch the cash market for signs of a near-term low. Stronger cash trade could quickly translate into increased buying in futures.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower in a continuation of Wednesday’s selling pressure. October futures marked a fresh for-the-move high on Wednesday before reversing lower and settling near session lows. This came despite a modest rebound in the CME lean hog index, which is up 12 cents to $86.27 as of Sept. 3, halting an extended string of seasonal price pressure. Wholesale pork plunged $3.53 to $95.29 on Wednesday, led lower by a $10.05 drop in bellies, which have undergone heavy losses as BLT season is seemingly over.