GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans saw relative weakness while corn and wheat mostly traded near unchanged on low volume overnight. Volatility in U.S. equities looks to continue and could have a spillover effect on commodities today. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged and the U.S. dollar index is around 150 points lower this morning.
USDA instituted a correction to Tuesday’s daily export sale of soybeans to China, lowering the quantity to 131,000 MT from 132,000 MT.
USDA rated 65% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 12% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 65% “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop dropped 1.4 points to 366.8. The soybean crop slipped 1.2 points to 361.8. Both crops remain rated well above year-ago and average for the beginning of September. Click here for details.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean are ENSO-neutral. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says three of seven climate models suggest SSTs in the tropical Pacific will exceed the La Niña threshold from October, while the remaining four signal SSTs are likely to remain at ENSO-neutral through the southern hemisphere spring (northern hemisphere fall).
The union representing East and Gulf Coast dockworkers is meeting in New Jersey for two days of wage negotiations with port employers, under the looming threat of a strike that could disrupt trade from Houston to Boston. Talks between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance have stalled since June, affecting nearly 45,000 workers. The union is seeking an 80% wage increase over six years, significantly higher than what West Coast dockworkers received. With the Sept. 30 deadline approaching, U.S. retailers are urging the White House to intervene to avoid a potential economic fallout.
CORN: December corn futures pivoted near unchanged overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome initial resistance at yesterday’s high of $4.10 then $4.16 1/2. Support stems from the 40-day moving average at $4.07 1/4 with further weakness looking to overtake psychological support at $4.00.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures faced selling pressure overnight. The 40-day moving average at $10.20 1/2 capped gains on Tuesday and stands as initial resistance. Further strength seeks to overcome $10.25. Support lies at the psychological $10.00 mark then the 10-day moving average at $9.93
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw modest strength overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $5.74 3/4, which is reinforced by $5.81. Support stems from the 40-day moving average at $5.64 3/4 then $5.52.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Mixed.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by rebounding wholesale beef prices. Choice cutout firmed $1.33 to $310.67 Tuesday while Select climbed back above the psychological $300.00 level, jumping $4.29 to $300.11. Movement was light though coming off the holiday weekend at 105 loads. Cash cattle prices fell for the fifth consecutive week last week, dropping $1.73 to $183.81. The recent bounce in futures implies traders’ view that weakness in the cash market is likely to wane soon.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mixed tone as technical buying is met with persistent cash market weakness. October futures opened lower Tuesday morning though quickly rebounded and closed at the highest mark in over three months. Still, the CME lean hog index continues to decline seasonally, most recently down another 32 cents to $86.15. Traders are anticipating relative strength in the index ahead of October futures expiration in mid-October, but if strength does not return soon, selling in futures is likely to return. Wholesale pork ended Tuesday $1.59 higher as all cuts posted gains on the day.