GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 7 to 9 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents lower, HRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS 3 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans saw strength overnight, trading steadily higher. Corn and wheat saw relative weakness though saw an increase in buying interest into the break. Commodities as a whole favored the downside overnight, with front-month crude oil futures trading near last month’s lows. The U.S. dollar index is trading modestly higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his U.S. corn and soybean yield forecasts by 1 bu. and 0.5 bu., respectively, after last week’s extreme heat across the Corn Belt. He now estimates the corn yield at 182.5 bu. per acre with production at 15.09 billion bushels. For soybeans, Cordonnier estimates the yield at 53 bu. per acre and production at 4.57 billion bushels. He has a neutral to slightly lower bias toward both crops.
Analysts expect USDA to report soybean crush totaled 191.7 million bu. for July, according to a Bloomberg survey. That would be a record for the month and up 4.4% from June and 3.7% above year-ago. Corn-for-ethanol use is expected to total 462.8 million bu., which would be up 4.6% from June and 1.7% above July 2023.
Ukraine’s ag ministry reached an agreement with exporters and farmer groups to cap wheat exports at 16.2 MMT for 2024-25. Ukraine exported 18.3 MMT of wheat in 2023-24. Through the first two months of the 2024-25 marketing year, Ukraine exported 3.59 MMT of wheat, up 2.53 MMT (239%) from the same period last year. The ministry said wheat is the only ag commodity that will have an export limit for 2024-25.
CORN: December corn futures pivoted near unchanged overnight. Resistance stems from $4.04, which acted as significant support before prices broke down in late July. Further strength finds resistance at $4.07, the 40-day moving average. Support stems from the psychological $4.00 mark then the 10-day moving average at $3.96 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures led strength overnight. Resistance at Friday’s high of $10.07 3/4 limited most gains, while additional strength eyes resistance at $10.16 1/2. Support comes in at the psychological $10.00 mark then the 20-day moving average at $9.94 1/2.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw modest profit-taking overnight. Stiff resistance remains at $5.52, while further strength eyes the 40-day moving average at $5.64. Support comes in at $5.44 3/4 then $5.39 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as prices continue to chop higher from the August low. Traders will pay close attention to how the cash market finished out last week and how much the cash cattle average dropped. Wholesale beef ended Friday mixed as Choice cutout firmed 68 cents to $309.34 while Select sunk 37 cents to $295.82. With the passing of Labor Day, the summer “beef” holidays have ended. That will put a focus on retailer beef demand, as they gear up for pork features during October, which is national pork month.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as technical buying continues to push futures higher, though strength is likely to wane if cash prices don’t stabilize soon. With the discount in October hogs down to $4.245 as of last Friday’s close, it’s unlikely traders will narrow it much more without signs of the cash index temporarily halting the seasonal slide. Pork cutout climbed $1.34 to $97.23 on Friday, led by gains in bellies and hams.