GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans traded on either side of unchanged overnight while wheat saw relative weakness. Positioning ahead of Monday’s reports is likely to drive trade today. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged and the U.S. dollar index is around 300 points lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 20,000 MT of soybean oil for delivery to South Korea during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Helene made landfall at 11:10 p.m. ET Thursday near the mouth of the Aucilla River in the Big Bend area of Florida’s Gulf Coast as a Category 4 hurricane. The U.S. National Hurricane Center says Helene weakened to tropical storm intensity early this morning as it moved inland through Georgia and is producing damaging winds and flooding across the Southeast. World Weather Inc. note, “The only good news for the storm from an agricultural perspective is a lower impact on cotton production areas in southwestern Georgia and immediate neighboring areas as the storm’s path veered to the east after coming inland.” Still, the timing and intensity of the storm is reminiscent of Hurricane Michael in 2018, which resulted in a 1.35-million-bale reduction to the U.S. cotton crop.
The U.S. today will impose higher levies on a range of Chinese-made products: up to 100% on electric vehicles, 50% on solar cells and semiconductors and 25% on EV batteries, steel, critical minerals and more. The decision, which President Joe Biden’s administration first announced in May, stemmed from a review of the tariffs initially slapped on China by Donald Trump when he was in the White House.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the borrowing cost of its seven-day reverse repurchase agreements by 20 basis points to 1.5%, the latest in a string of economic aid measures this week. PBOC also officially reduced the bank reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points, a move that was signaled earlier this week without an official timeframe. The broad stimulus measures triggered the biggest weekly rally in Chinese equities since 2008. The blue-chip CSI 300 and benchmark Shanghai Composite indexes surged roughly 16% and 13%, respectively, for the week, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped 13%.
CORN: December corn futures pivoted near unchanged overnight. Initial resistance stands at $4.15, which is backed by yesterday’s high of $4.19 1/4. Support lies at the 10-day moving average at $4.11 then Wednesday’s low at $4.08 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $10.54 1/2 before tackling the 100-day moving average at $10.64. Support lies at $10.39 1/4 then the 10-day moving average at $10.30 1/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw relative weakness overnight. The 100-day moving average limited gains yesterday at $5.91. Support at the 10-day moving average, currently at $5.78 3/4, limited losses overnight. Further weakness finds support at $5.72 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher on stronger cash cattle trade. Packers actively raised cash bids on Thursday and feedlots in the Southern Plains started moving cattle at mostly $2.00 higher prices. Activity was slower to develop in the northern market, though expectations are cash trade will be sharply higher there as well. Reports of higher trade helped push nearby futures to a fresh for-the-move high. Beef demand remains quite robust, noted by beef stocks declining contra-seasonally during August. Still, cutout is struggling to gain footing, as Choice fell another $1.80 to $296.37 Thursday while Select sunk 91 cents to $282.37.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as yesterday’s Hogs & Pigs Report noted market hog inventories were higher than expected. December futures underwent heavy selling Thursday but closed well off intraday lows. A modest bounce in the cash index, which is up 2 cents to $84.07 as of Sept. 25, likely supported that rebound. Pork cutout was up 54 cents to $94.64, driven by gains in bellies and hams. Consumer pork demand remains strong, as noted in yesterday’s USDA Cold Storage Report. Pork stocks rose less than average in August, showing demand is keeping up with seasonally increasing supply.