GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: 5 to 7 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans and wheat followed saw a continuation of Wednesday’s strength overnight, while corn saw relative weakness. Technical resistance at for-the-move highs in corn spurred selling pressure. Wheat and beans surged higher despite unfavorable outside markets, as front-month crude oil futures continue to pull back from recent highs and the U.S. dollar index is over 650 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 115,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Helene will make landfall this evening in the northern Apalachee Bay south of Tallahassee, Florida, as Category 3 hurricane, with potential to become a Category 4 storm. As it moves northward inland, Helene may experience the Fujiwara Effect, when two low pressure systems collide and rotate around each other and then merge. World Weather Inc. says the impact of Helene on the Southeast may be comparable to that of Hurricane Michael in early October 2018.
BNSF Railway and Union Pacific Railroad have suspended grain shipments to Mexico due to Ferromex’s inability to handle rising demand. The embargoes, driven by Mexico’s rail network congestion, have caused delays at key Texas border crossings. Mexico, the largest export market for U.S. agricultural goods, relies heavily on rail for two-thirds of its grain imports. The Surface Transportation Board is monitoring the situation as stakeholders seek a resolution.
Export sales for the week ended September 19:
Corn: Net sales totaled 535,100 MT for 2024-25, below expectations. Increases came primarily for Colombia, Mexico and Japan. Traders expected sales from 600,000 MT to 1.3 MMT for 2024-25. Exports of 1.104 MMT were primarily for Mexico.
Soybeans: Net sales totaled 1.575 MMT for 2024-25. Increases came primarily for China and unknown destinations. Traders expected sales from 900,000 MT to 2.0 MMT for 2024-25. Exports of 518,000 MT.
Wheat: Net sales of 158,900 MT for 2024-25—a marketing year low, down 36% from the previous week and 60% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Chile. Sales were below expectations of 200,000 to 600,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports of 710,500 MT were the second consecutive marketing year high.
CORN: December corn futures continue to struggle against $4.15 resistance. Strength above that mark eyes resistance at $4.20 before challenging $4.25. Support comes in at $4.13 then $4.10 3/4 on continued selling pressure.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures led strength overnight. Initial resistance at $10.62, the 100-day moving average, limited gains overnight. Further buying targets the psychological $10.75 mark. Support comes in at $10.50 then $10.42 on a reversal lower.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continued higher overnight. Gains stalled near the Sept. 13 for-the-move high close at $5.94 3/4. Additional resistance lies at the psychological $6.00 mark. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $5.91 1/4 then the 10-day moving average at $5.80 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a weaker tone as the cash fundamental outlook wanes. Limited cash cattle trade has taken place thus far this week at roughly steady prices. Sinking wholesale beef prices are likely to limit packers’ willingness to pay up for cattle. Choice cutout plunged $3.72 to $298.17 Wednesday, the lowest quote since May 10. Select cutout dropped $3.59 to $283.28. Movement remained solid at 171 loads, indicating robust grocer demand under the market. USDA will detail beef inventories with today’s Cold Storage Report after the close. The five-year average is a 5.1-million-lb. increase in the month of August. USDA reported net beef sales of 10,100 MT for 2024, down 35% from the previous week and 34% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as cash fundamentals weigh on prices, though some positioning is likely to drive trade today ahead of USDA’ Hogs & Pigs Report this afternoon. Analysts expect the report to show the U.S. hog herd grew 0.2% from year-ago to 76.285 million head as of Sept. 1. Market hog inventories are expected to be up 0.4%, while the breeding herd is anticipated to be down 2.1%. Revisions to past data will be key. The CME lean hog index is down another 16 cents to $84.05 as of Sept. 24. Pork cutout was up 14 cents to $94.10 Wednesday, driven by gains in picnics, butts and ribs. USDA reported net pork sales of 28,000 MT for 2024, down 3% from the previous week and 8% from the four-week average.