GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents lower.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside overnight with soybeans leading the way lower. The next couple of days are important technically for corn and beans, given yesterday’s rejection from for-the-move highs. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are pulling back from yesterday’s failed breakout and the U.S. dollar is modestly lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 180,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Tropical Storm Helene produced heavy rain in the northeast Yucatan Peninsula early this morning. The storm will become a Category 3 hurricane in the next 24 to 30 hours and landfall is expected Thursday night over the western coast of Apalachee Bay, Florida. The storm will remain intense as it passes through northern Florida and Georgia, with serious agricultural damage expected. World Weather Inc. says, “Cotton in southwest Georgia is expected to be severely damaged with some complete losses possible. Soybeans and peanuts may also be impacted with crops in low-lying areas most impacted.” Remnant rain from Helene is expected to reach into parts of the Ohio River Basin as it merges with an upper level low pressure center over the Delta and Tennessee River Basin area.
Argentina’s grain and soybean production could reach 143 MMT in the current growing season under normal weather conditions, according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. If conditions are drier, production could fall to 128.8 MMT. Given normal weather, the exchange says grain and soy exports in 2024-25 could total 101.5 MMT, the highest since 2020-21. It said soil moisture conditions are adequate in Argentina’s agricultural core, but western and northern areas are in urgent need of rainfall.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the rate on 300 billion yuan ($42.66 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions by 30 basis points 2.00%, as signaled on Tuesday. The 30-basis-point cut was the biggest since the bank began using the monetary tool to guide market interest rates in 2016. This is part of China’s most comprehensive economic stimulus measures since 2015 to revive the economy and restore market confidence amid ongoing economic headwinds. PBOC also withdrew a net 291 billion yuan, the largest liquidity drainage since December 2021, as it shifts toward a short-term policy tool.
CORN: December corn futures continued lower overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $4.08, where the 10-day, 20-day and 40-day moving averages are converged. Resistance lies at $4.13 then the Sept. 24 for-the-move high at $4.18 1/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures led weakness overnight. Initial resistance lies at $10.42 1/4 and is backed by yesterday’s high of $10.58 1/4. Support comes in at $10.24 3/4 then the 40-day moving average at $10.18 3/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw followthrough selling overnight. The 10-day moving average, currently at $5.74 3/4, limited most losses overnight. Additional support lies at $5.71. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $5.82 1/2 before tackling the 100-day moving average at $5.91.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, though overbought conditions in December futures could limit gains after the open. December futures have closed higher for six consecutive sessions, supported by rebounding cash cattle prices. Packer purchases are expected to be light this week as slaughter is expected to dip to less than 600,000 head, which would be the smallest for the week since 2015. That could limit strength in the cash market. Choice beef climbed 8 cents to $301.89 Tuesday, while Select dropped 92 cents to $286.87.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, driven by technical selling. December lean hog futures reversed from intraday highs Tuesday following a failure to break above trendline resistance stemming from the July and early September highs. Followthrough selling is expected, especially considering the recent continuation of weakness in cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is down 8 cents to $84.21 as of Sept. 23, a new low on the seasonal decline. Pork cutout sunk 18 cents to $93.96 Tuesday, led lower by ribs and bellies, which have been leading wholesale pork prices.