GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 14 to 16 cents higher.
Wheat: 5 to 7 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each saw choppy trade to start the overnight session, though buying interest increased this morning and all three went into the break on session highs. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are trading higher and on three-week highs, while the U.S. dollar index is pivoting near unchanged.
A tropical storm will form in the northwestern Caribbean Sea today and is expected to reach Category 3 intensity before reaching landfall Thursday in the northern Apalachee Bay. The storm will then move through the southern Appalachian Mountains before curving to the north and northwest into the eastern Midwest as a tropical depression and then a remnant low pressure center. World Weather Inc. says the storm is likely to produce wind damage in Florida and Georgia and flooding from Florida to Kentucky and the western Carolinas.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier trimmed his U.S. soybean yield forecast 0.5 bu. to 52.0 bu. per acre, noting early soybeans will be better yielding that later-harvested fields due to late-summer dryness. That reduced his soybean production estimate to 4.48 billion bushels. Cordonnier kept his corn yield and production forecasts at 182.5 bu. per acre and 15.09 billion bu., respectively. He maintained a neutral to lower bias toward both crops.
USDA rated 65% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 12% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 64% “good” to “excellent” and 11% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop dropped 2.2 points to 366.0. The soybean rating slipped 0.7 point to 358.5. Both crops are rated well above year-ago, with corn up 30.8 points (9.2%) and soybeans up 20.4 points (6.0%). Click here for details.
CORN: December corn futures traded on either side of unchanged overnight, though surged higher into the break. Resistance stems from $4.20 then $4.25, which coincides with the 100-day moving average. Support comes in at $4.13 1/4 then the 10-day moving average at $4.09 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures forged a fresh for-the-move high overnight. Gains stopped shy of psychological $10.50 resistance, which is reinforced by $10.57 3/4. Support comes in at $10.40 3/4 then the prior high at $10.31 1/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures went into the break near session highs. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $5.91 1/2 before tackling the Sept. 14 high of $5.98 3/4. Support comes in at $5.82 3/4 then the 10-day moving average at $5.76.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher as traders continue to anticipate further strength in the cash cattle market. Last week’s cash cattle average climbed $1.90 to $184.01, the second consecutive week of gains. Cash sources expect cash cattle to be steady/higher again this week despite packer margins sinking back into the red as cattle prices have rebounded and wholesale beef has sunk. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Monday as Choice cutout climbed $1.62 to $301.81 and Select fell 80 cents to $287.79.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as momentum continues to pull futures higher. December futures continue to climb despite resurgent seasonal weakness in the CME lean hog index, which is down another 7 cents to $84.29 as of Sept. 20. While the index has turned lower, traders have been encouraged by the modest declines the past couple of days. Pork cutout slipped a penny to $94.14, led lower by hams, picnics and loins, but strong gains in bellies and ribs helped offset losses.