GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 6 to 8 cents higher.
Soybeans: 14 to 16 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 11 to 13 cents higher; HRW 12 to 14 cents higher; HRS 8 to 10 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each trended higher throughout the overnight session and went into the break near session highs. Bulls defended key support in corn and soybeans after Friday’s weakness. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher and consolidating near recent highs and the U.S. dollar index is nearly 500 points higher. Long-term treasury rates continue to trend higher, which is supporting the dollar. The uptick in long-term interest rates is concerning, indicating traders anticipate longer-term heightened inflation with potential implications of higher lending rates.
USDA reported daily sales of 165,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
The Northern and west-central Plains and upper Midwest will be dry this week. The Southern Plains, lower Midwest, Delta and Southeast will trend wetter than normal this week. Temperatures will be close to normal in the Southern Plains and Delta, while temps will trend cooler than normal in other areas.
A possible strike by 45,000 dockworkers at major ports along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts threatens to cause significant supply-chain disruptions just weeks before the election, Bloomberg reports. Labor talks have stalled, with workers prepared to strike starting Oct. 1. A weeklong strike could halt the flow of goods such as auto parts, fresh meat and fruit, potentially costing the U.S. a $4.5 billion to $7.5 billion hit, according to Grace Zwemmer at Oxford Economics. Zwemmer expects that the drag would be made up once the strike is resolved and ports process any backlogs.
House Republicans introduced a 49-page bill to extend federal funding for 12 weeks, aiming to prevent a partial government shutdown. The stopgap measure, which would continue current funding levels through Dec. 20, is expected to receive strong bipartisan support in both chambers of Congress. The House will consider the bill this week, with the Senate expected to act shortly after. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) plans to bring a rule for consideration to the floor by Wednesday. Congress must act by the end of September to avoid a shutdown.
CORN: December corn futures followed beans and wheat higher overnight. Prices stalled at $4.07 3/4 resistance, which is reinforced by resistance at $4.12 3/4. Support lies at $4.01 3/4 then the psychological $4.00 mark.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures rocketed above 40-day moving average resistance overnight. Next resistance stems from the Sept. 6 for-the-move high of $10.31 1/4. Bulls will seek to hold prices above the 40-day at $10.16 1/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures surged higher overnight. Initial resistance stands at $5.84 1/4 though bulls are ultimately looking to close prices above the Sept. 13 for-the-move high close of $5.94 3/4. Support comes in at $5.73 3/4 then last week’s low of $5.64 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of Friday’s strength. Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report was largely neutral with cattle in large feedlots, placements and marketings each near the pre-report estimates. Cash cattle traded as much as $2.00 higher late last week, though official data won’t be released until later this morning. Optimism that the cash market has put in a low should spur futures higher as well. Wholesale beef ended Friday higher, with Choice cutout climbing 63 cents to $300.19 and Select firming 33 cents to $288.59.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone. Prices traded relatively steady late last week as traders kept a close eye on the cash market. The uptick in the CME lean hog index proved short lived last week but prices have stabilized. The index is down 2 cents to $84.36 as of Sept. 19, following a one-day 16 cent uptick. October futures finished Friday at a $2.135 discount to today’s cash quote. Wholesale pork ended Friday lower with cutout dropping 66 cents to $94.15. Losses in bellies led the way lower. Movement sunk to a disappointing 232.9 loads.