GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 4 to 6 cents higher; HRW 3 to 5 cents higher; HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led the way lower overnight, pulling corn futures modestly lower. Wheat saw relative strength though went into the break off session highs. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower this morning on profit-taking, while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 100 points higher, though still near 14-month lows.
USDA reported daily sales of 121,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Of the record 12.14 MMT of soybeans China imported in August, 10.24 MMT (84.3%) originated from Brazil. U.S. soybeans accounted for 202,383 MT (1.7%) of China’s August imports. Through the first eight months of this year, China imported 53.8 MMT of soybeans from Brazil (up 217% from the same period last year) and 12.8 MMT from the U.S. (down 73%).
Grain trade association Coceral slashed its estimate for this year’s soft wheat production in the European Union and Britain to 126 MMT, down 8.5 MMT from its June forecast and 10% below year-ago. It also lowered its outlook for 2024 barley production in the EU and Britain to 57.6 MMT from 59.9 MMT previously and cut its corn production forecast to 60.3 MMT from 64.8 MMT.
Ukraine’s ag ministry lowered its winter wheat seedings forecast by 210,000 hectares to 4.48 million hectares. Record high temperatures and a lack of rain almost throughout the country in recent months have created unfavorable conditions for sowing winter crops. As of Sept. 19, farmers had seeded 360,300 hectares to winter grains, including 340,300 hectares of winter wheat.
CORN: December corn futures traded lower overnight. Support at $4.04 limited most selling pressure overnight, while additional selling finds support at the psychological $4.00 mark. Resistance stems from $4.08 then this week’s high of $4.15.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw continued selling pressure overnight. The 10-day moving average at $10.07 3/4 serves up initial support, with backing from the psychological $10.00 mark. Resistance stands at $10.15 3/4 then this week’s high of $10.22.
WHEAT: December SRW futures reversed a portion of Thursday’s loss overnight. Initial resistance at $5.73, the 10-day moving average, limited gains overnight. Additional strength finds resistance at $5.84 1/4. Resurgent selling pressure finds support at $5.64 then $5.61 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a modestly weaker tone as positioning drives trade ahead of today’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report. Feedlot inventory is expected to be up 0.9% from year ago, placements are expected to fall 1.0% and marketings and expected down 3.4% from Aug. 2023. Cash cattle trade remains light into the end of the week, with trade expected to take place this afternoon. Wholesale beef continues to decline seasonally with Choice cutout falling $1.82 to $299.56 Thursday, marking the first time Choice beef fell below the $300.00 mark since May 13. Select dropped another $1.49 to $288.26.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a firmer tone, supported by cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is up 16 cents to $84.38 as of Sept. 18, the first daily gain in two weeks. Relative strength in the cash market is likely to support the recent futures advance, though traders will keep a close eye on the cash market to watch for a resumption of seasonal weakness. Pork cutout is up 40 cents to $94.81, driven by strong gains in bellies, butts and ribs. Movement at 323.7 loads indicates grocer demand remains robust ahead of likely features for National Pork Month in October.