GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 10 to 12 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 3 to 5 cents higher; HRW 5 to 7 cents higher; HRS 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight, surging higher and pulling both corn and beans modestly higher as well. Soybean futures have recently struggled to build off overnight strength in recent weeks, bulls will look to buck that trend today. Today’s interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve will likely dictate much of today’s price action in outside markets. Front-month crude oil futures are trading modestly weaker while the U.S. dollar index is around 300 points higher this morning.
The Fed will start cutting interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting this afternoon, pivoting to easing monetary policy. The main question is whether the Fed starts with a 25-basis-point cut or opts for a bigger reduction – and the path it intends to take from there. Markets will pay close attention to the so-called “dot-plot” economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference.
France’s ag ministry slashed the country’s 2024-25 soft wheat export forecast outside the EU by 3.5 MMT to 4 MMT, which would be 61% below last year due to the smallest crop since 1986. The export forecast within the bloc was cut 500,000 MT to 6 MMT, now expected to be 4.5% below 2023-24.
Ukraine’s exportable grain surplus is seen at 43.2 MMT for 2024-25, Ukrainian state news agency Ukrinform quoted the ag minister as saying. That would be down 7.5 MMT (14.8%) from 2023-24. Exporters have already shipped nearly 9 MMT of grains since the beginning of July, including almost 5 MMT of wheat, 2.53 MMT of corn and 1.17 MMT of barley. The ministry said an additional 11.5 MMT of wheat, 19.2 MMT of corn and 1.5 MMT of barley could be exported through June 2025.
CORN: December corn futures traded modestly higher overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at the Sept. 6 high of $4.16 before tackling resistance at $4.20 3/4. Support comes in at $4.08 1/4, the 40-day moving average, which has capped the downside over the past week.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures surged higher overnight. The 40-day moving average limited overnight gains at $10.16 1/4, additional strength finds resistance at $10.24 3/4. Support lies at $10.07 then the psychological $10.00 mark.
WHEAT: December SRW futures made up a portion this week’s loss overnight. Initial resistance stems from yesterday’s high of $5.84 1/4, which is backed by the 100-day moving average at $5.92 3/4. Support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $5.75 1/2 then $5.70 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s strength, which produced a technical breakout on the daily bar charts. That is likely to spur followthrough strength today. Traders will keep a close watch on the cash market, though trade will likely remain light ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report Friday afternoon. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Tuesday, with Choice cutout dropping 66 cents to $303.91 and Select inching up 8 cents to $292.22.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, building on technical strength seen so far this week. Despite seasonally weaker cash prices, futures have rebounded from uptrend support and have shored up discounts to the cash market, with October futures now just $2.44 below today’s quote for the CME lean hog index, which is down 16 cents to $84.22. Traders are apparently encouraged by the slowing decline of the index. Wholesale pork ended Tuesday 78 cents higher to $95.00, supported by strong gains in bellies and hams.