GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 3 to 5 cents higher; HRS 4 to 6 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the upside, with wheat leading the way higher following yesterday’s steep decline. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are up modestly and consolidating near recent highs and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 250 points higher.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his U.S. soybean yield forecast 0.5 bu. to 52.5 bu. per acre, noting soil moisture has declined in nine of the past 10 weeks, which is detrimental to pod filling. That reduced his soybean production estimate to 4.52 billion bushels. Cordonnier kept his corn yield and production forecasts at 182.5 bu. per acre and 15.09 billion bu., respectively. He maintained a neutral to lower bias toward both crops.
USDA rated 65% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 12% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 64% “good” to “excellent” and 11% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop held at 368.2, while the soybean crop fell 3.0 points to 359.2. Click here for details.
France’s ag ministry cut its soft wheat production forecast by 540,000 MT to 25.78 MMT, which would be the lowest since 1986. That’s in line with most private crop forecasters, which are in the 25 MMT to 26 MMT range.
CORN: December corn futures continue to consolidate near recent highs. Resistance stems from $4.13 1/4 then the Sept. 6 high at $4.16. Bulls are seeking to keep prices above 40-day moving average support at $4.07 3/4, which is reinforced by support at $4.05 1/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures traded higher overnight. Resistance stems from yesterday’s high of $10.12, which is firmly backed by the 40-day moving average at $10.16 1/2. Support comes in at $10.03 1/2 then $9.95 1/2.
WHEAT: December SRW futures recovered a portion of Monday’s loss overnight. Initial resistance stands at $5.85 and is reinforced by the 100-day moving average at $5.93 1/4. Support comes in at $5.75 3/4, the 10-day moving average, then $5.67.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as technical selling is likely to persist. October futures rejected off downtrend resistance stemming from the mid-August and early September highs on Friday and continued lower yesterday. Last week’s cash cattle average rose after stronger-than-expected trade in the northern market late in the week, ending the streak of six consecutive weeks of weaker trade. Wholesale beef prices continue to slip, with Choice cutout dropping 34 cents to $304.57 and Select sinking $2.03 to $292.14 on Monday. Despite weaker wholesale prices, cutting margins remain in the black, which could encourage higher cash prices again, though active trade likely won’t come until late in the week given this week’s Cattle on Feed report.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Monday’s technical strength, but continued seasonal weakness in the cash market could limit gains after the open. October futures bounced from technical support and posted strong gains on Monday, but strength in futures and continued weakness in the CME lean hog index, which is down another 49 cents to $83.48 as of Sept. 13, has narrowed the discount futures hold to the index to $4.455. Wholesale pork firmed 32 cents to $94.22 on Monday, with all cuts except hams posting gains on the day.