GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 10 to 12 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 2 to 4 cents higher; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat saw modest strength while corn and soybeans favored the downside in low volume overnight trade. Each saw an increase in selling pressure into the break. Front-month crude oil futures are trading modestly lower this morning, negating yesterday’s bounce. The U.S. dollar index is trading modestly higher and near last week’s highs.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean yield forecasts at 182.5 bu. per acre and 53 bu. per acre, respectively, though he has a neutral to lower bias as late-season dryness is not ideal for crops. Cordonnier’s production forecasts remained at 15.09 billion bu. for corn and 4.57 billion bu. for soybeans.
S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts the U.S. corn crop at 15.220 billion bu. on a yield of 184 bu. per acre. The firm pegs the soybean crop at 4.612 billion bu. on a yield of 53.5 bu. per acre. USDA’s initial crop estimates in August pegged corn at 15.147 billion bu. on a yield of 183.1 bu. per acre and soybeans at 4.589 billion bu. on a yield of 53.2 bu. per acre.
USDA rated 64% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 12% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 65% “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop rose 1.5 points to 368.2 while the soybean rating improved 0.4 point to 362.2. Illinois and Ohio led gains for the corn crop, while Illinois paced the increase for soybeans. The increases halted a five-week slide for corn and a four-week decline for soybeans. Click here for details
CORN: December corn futures traded modestly lower overnight. Initial resistance stems from the 40-day moving average at $4.07 3/4, which is reinforced by resistance at $4.12 3/4. Support comes in at $4.04 1/4 then the psychological $4.00 mark.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures gave up most of Monday’s gain overnight. Prices are caught between 40-day moving average resistance at $10.19 3/4 and 10-day moving average support at $10.05. A daily close outside of those levels will dictate near term momentum.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw relative strength overnight. Prices appear to be consolidating in a bull flag on the daily bar chart. Resistance stems from $5.80 3/4 then $5.85. Support comes in at $5.66 1/2 then $5.60 1/2 on resurgent selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Futures saw strong buying as traders narrowed discounts to the cash market. Last week’s cash average fell another $2.63 to $181.18, the sixth consecutive weekly decline. While followthrough buying could push futures higher today, traders will keep a close eye on the cash market before they are active buyers. Wholesale beef ended Monday mixed as Choice cutout sunk 89 cents to $308.52 while Select climbed $2.37 to $298.49.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as cash fundamentals continue to fall seasonally, though short-term oversold conditions could limit selling pressure after the open. October futures have closed lower for four consecutive sessions and are near-term oversold. The CME lean hog index is down 50 cents to $85.74 as of Sept. 6, the lowest since April 2. Pork cutout sunk 38 cents to $95.72 Monday, led lower by a $4.57 drop in hams.