GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 7 to 11 cents lower.
Soybeans: 13 to 15 cents lower.
Wheat: 3 to 10 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybean futures fell near a two-week low overnight as escalating concerns over global inflation weighed on commodity markets. Corn dropped to a low for the week and wheat also fell. Malaysian palm oil futures fell 3.7% to near a one-month low on expectations for higher production. Front-month crude oil futures are down more than $1.50 as the market extended a sharp three-day slide. U.S. stock index futures signal a weaker open, while the U.S. dollar index was up nearly 600 points.
USDA did not release weekly export sales numbers today as the agency continues to address technical problems. Due to “unanticipated difficulties” with the launch of the new Export Sales Reporting and Maintenance System, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service will temporarily revert to a legacy system while it works to fully resolve the issues with the new system, an FAS administrator said Wednesday. FAS also will be unable to publish weekly export sales data next week, but expects to resume regular reporting Sept. 15, the administrator said.
USDA reported daily soybean export sales of 396,000 MT received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022-23 marketing year. Today’s announcement follows five daily soybean sales totaling 1.204 MT to China and unknown destinations over the past week.
USDA reports monthly grain and soybean crush reports this afternoon. Traders expect USDA to report July soybean crush totaled 180.8 million bu., according to a Bloomberg survey. That would be up 3.8% from June and 8.7% greater than July 2021. Traders expect corn-for-ethanol use to total 448.3 million bu., which would be up 1.4% from June and 0.4% above last year’s level.
U.S. gasoline prices dropped for the 11th week in a row as crude oil fell from summertime highs above $120. The national average pump price was $3.829 per gallon as of today, down from a June peak of $5.01 but still up 66 cents, or 21%, from a year ago, according to AAA. Implied gasoline demand is running about 6% below year-ago levels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The Black Sea corridor to export Ukrainian grain is working as normal despite Russia’s attacks and Kyiv’s counter-offensive in southern areas of the country, Ukraine’s southern military command said on Thursday. “The work of the grain corridors is working according to the previously agreed plan,” southern command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk said.
Ukraine’s 2023 wheat seedings area may fall by 30% to 40% due to lack of funds and production is unlikely to exceed 15 MMT, a deputy chair of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council said on Thursday. Besides lower planted acreage, fertilizer use could be decreased, which would likely limit yields. The country will harvest around 19 MMT of wheat this year after a record crop of 32.2 MMT in 2021.
Russian wheat exports are expected to rise to 4 MMT in September from 3.5 MMT in August as the record crop begins to reach the market, Reuters reported, citing traders and industry analysts. Supplies will still be low compared with September last year, reflecting a strong ruble and problems with logistics and payments caused by Western sanctions imposed on Moscow. Exports from Russia fell by 27% in July-August, the first two months of the 2022-23 marketing season, Sovecon consultancy said.
Kazakhstan will lift restrictions on wheat and flour exports from Sept. 10, the government said Thursday. The country introduced wheat export limits in May to keep the domestic market stocked and cool inflation linked to rising global food prices, but it expects a strong crop this year.
Japan purchased 95,497 MT of milling wheat from its weekly tender, including 67,967 U.S. and 27,530 Canadian. South Korea purchased 63,000 MT of feed wheat that is expected to be sourced from Australia.
CORN: December corn overnight fell as low as $6.58 3/4, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Aug. 26 and slightly above 10-day moving average support around $6.57. The contract has dropped three straight days and is down about 5 cents for the week.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans overnight broke below trendline support drawn from the July 22 low and fell to $14.04, the lowest intraday price since Aug. 22 and slightly above the 50- and 40-day moving averages at $14.01 1/4 and $14.00, respectively.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat traded in a narrow range overnight after gaining 11 1/4 cents Wednesday to $8.31 1/2. Strength in the U.S. dollar, which has returned near a 20-year high, may keep pressure on wheat futures.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady-weaker
HOGS: Steady-weaker
CATTLE: Live cattle futures may extend Wednesday’s slide to four-week lows on recession concerns and expectations for softer cash cattle prices. Lower corn prices may support feeder cattle. Cash cattle trade so far this week has been light with packers showing limited interest with fresh contract supplies for September becoming available today. Cash prices recorded so far have been a little firmer than last week, but there hasn’t been enough trade for a good test and we still expect the cash market to soften. October live cattle fell $1.25 Wednesday to $142.575, the contract’s lowest closing price since Aug. 2.
HOGS: Lean hog futures may face pressure from an ongoing slump in the cash market. The national direct cash hog price fell $2.02 Wednesday, with much of the pressure in the Iowa/Minnesota market, which was down $3.73. The CME lean hog index is down another $1.74 today (as of Aug. 30) to $107.62, the lowest level since June 10. With packer margins solidly in the red, additional cash weakness is expected as slaughter supplies build seasonally into the end of the year. Pork cutout values rose $1.03 Wednesday to $103.19 on lighter movement of 262 loads. October lean hogs fell $2.075 Wednesday to $91.525.