GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 12 to 14 cents higher; HRW 15 to 17 cents higher; HRS 12 to 14 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat led strength overnight as corn followed to the upside. Soybeans struggled to break above technical resistance, how prices react after the open will be key. Outside markets are favorable to start the week as the U.S. dollar index is around 150 points lower, while front-month crude oil futures are trading near two-week highs.
AgRural reported the Brazilian soy harvest as 70% completed, up from 61% a week ago and 63% a year ago at this time. Production losses in Rio Grande do Sul continue to garner attention as hot and dry weather are limiting yields. Safrinha plantings were reported at 97% completed. Attention will be on weather, as the seasonal rainy period is coming to an end.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is expected to report its members crushed 185.2 million bu. of soybeans in February, according to a Reuters survey. That would be down 7.6% from January and 0.5% less than last year’s record for the month. Soyoil stocks are expected to rise to 1.386 billion pounds.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered their G20 GDP forecast to 3.1% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026 after previously projecting GDP at 3.3% for both years previously. That would be down from 3.2% in 2024. The firm notes a tariff and inflation driven slowdown in the U.S., Mexico and Canada as the leading cause in faltering G20 GDP growth. U.S. growth forecasts have been downgraded to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. Canada’s growth forecast has been drastically reduced to 0.7%, while Mexico is expected to enter a recession.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday that after imposing tariffs on major trading partners, the U.S. could pursue bilateral trade talks to establish new agreements. His comments follow President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 200% tariff on European alcohol imports, intensifying global trade tensions. Speaking on Face the Nation, Rubio emphasized that the tariff measures are universal and aimed at creating a new “baseline of fairness and reciprocity” before engaging in further negotiations. “This is global. It’s not against Canada, it’s not against Mexico, it’s not against the EU, it’s everybody,” Rubio said. He reiterated that the current trade dynamics are unsustainable and require a fundamental reset.
CORN: May corn futures followed wheat higher overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $4.66 3/4, the 10-day moving average, which is reinforced by resistance at $4.71. Support comes in at $4.60 then last week’s low of $4.56 1/4 on selling pressure.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures are butting against resistance. Bulls are seeking to close prices above downtrend resistance at $10.18, which is backed by the psychological $10.25 mark. Support comes in at $10.11 1/4 then the psychological $10.00 mark on a reversal lower.
WHEAT: May SRW futures posted impressive gains overnight. Prices stalled at the 40-day moving average, which will stand as resistance at $5.69 1/4. Strength above that mark targets resistance at $5.75. Resurgent weakness has bears targeting support at $5.61, the 10-day moving average.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as the market reflects tepid demand. Cash cattle trade was light going into Friday, this morning’s release of least week’s cash cattle average could provide a catalyst in futures. Cash trade this week is once again likely to be pushed late into the week given the Cattle on Feed Report. Reports of China letting export licenses lapse to over a thousand U.S. plants could weigh on prices as expectations for export demand sink. Wholesale beef ended Friday lower as Choice cutout fell $1.42 while Select slipped $1.15 to $306.32.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as cash fundamentals continue to struggle garnering much bullish momentum. Lower expected exports to China could also weigh on prices today with China letting export licenses lapse. The CME lean hog index is down 19 cents to $89.55 as of March 13, though that remains above the late February low. Pork cutout continues to balance between $95.00 and $100.00, most recently inching 9 cents higher to $97.38, led by strength in ribs.