GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher HRW 4 to 6 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each chopped near unchanged on light volume overnight. Each saw an increase in selling pressure earlier this morning, though buyers stepped back in going into the break. Outside markets are mixed this morning as the U.S. dollar index is up on corrective strength ahead of today’s FOMC meeting conclusion, up around 300 points. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged.
S&P Global Commodity Insights projected that U.S. farmers would plant 94.3 million acres of corn in 2025, up 800,000 acres from their previous forecast released in January and up 3.7 million acres from 2024. They left their soybean planting forecast unchanged at 83.3 million acres, down 3.8 million acres from last year. The firm lowered its cotton plantings to 10.2 million acres, down 250,000 acres from January, and projected wheat plantings at 46.6 million acres, down 250,000 acres from their earlier forecast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to temporarily halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy and infrastructure targets following a two-hour phone call with President Donald Trump, both the White House and Kremlin confirmed. However, Moscow has not committed to a broader ceasefire. While Trump pushed for a 30-day truce endorsed by Ukraine, the agreement only covers energy infrastructure as negotiations continue on other key issues, including a potential maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea. The Kremlin’s statement emphasized Putin’s condition that foreign military aid to Ukraine be halted, though this was absent from the White House’s readout.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, extending the pause in its rate-cut cycle that began last September. Policymakers are likely to adopt a cautious stance amid persistent economic uncertainty, particularly regarding trade and fiscal policies under the Trump administration. Alongside the rate decision, the Fed will release updated economic projections for GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. These forecasts are expected to indicate slightly higher core inflation and a modest slowdown in economic growth.
CORN: May corn futures continue to see choppy price action. Support stems from yesterday’s low of $4.55 1/4, which is backed by the psychological $4.50 mark. Resistance stands at $4.61, though bulls are ultimately looking to tackle the 10-day moving average at $4.63 1/2.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures continue to undergo selling pressure. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $10.08, which is reinforced by the psychological $10.00 mark. Resistance comes in at the 10-day moving average at $10.14 3/4, which is reinforced by this week’s high of $10.21 3/4.
WHEAT: May SRW futures saw modest weakness this morning. Bulls are looking to hold support at $5.57, which is reinforced by psychological $5.50 support. Resistance stands at $5.68 3/4, the 40-day moving average, then this week’s high of $5.75 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, driven by profit-taking. April live cattle futures are nearing overbought levels on the daily bar chart, which is likely to spur profit-taking as there is a lack of fundamental support due to slow developing negotiations in the cash cattle market. Cash trade is likely to be punted to Friday this week due to the monthly Cattle on Feed Report. Wholesale beef did end Tuesday higher, which could lend some support, as Choice cutout climbed $2.16 to $323.32, while Select rose $1.33 to $309.23.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of yesterday’s selling pressure. Lean hogs tested the upper end of the recent range yesterday before reversing lower, a testament to choppy cash fundamentals driving futures trade. The CME lean hog index is up 4 cents to $89.32 as of March 17, ending the string of recent losses. Pork cutout fell $2.01 on Tuesday, led by a $10.88 loss in primal bellies. Cutout is nearing the lower end of the recent range, which could drum up additional demand.