GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher; HRW 1 to 3 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans saw modest strength overnight while corn and SRW wheat traded near unchanged. Traders are awaiting today’s USDA reports, so positioning is likely to drive trade ahead of that. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher and near psychological resistance while the U.S. dollar index is around 125 points higher.
USDA will release its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks Reports at 11:00 a.m. CT, both of which have potential to trigger strong price reactions. Most of the pre-report focus has been on planting intentions for the upcoming growing season. But quarterly stocks have a history of producing big price moves, especially for the corn market, as analysts have struggled to accurately predict those figures. Pre-report expectations.
Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 82% completed as of Thursday March 27, according to AgRural. That is up from 77% a week ago and 74% at the same time last year. That is the most rapid harvest since 2010/11. The summer corn crop was 82% harvested, up from 77% last week but steady with 82% a year ago.
Retaliatory tariffs are expected to force foreign automakers to raise their prices, reigniting auto inflation that has largely stalled since the supply-chain disruption fueled inflation spike starting in 2021. Trump told NBC News during a Saturday interview that he “couldn’t care less” if foreign automakers raise their prices abroad in reaction to U.S. tariffs because U.S.-made auto sales would benefit. “The world has been ripping off the United States for the last 40 years and more,” Trump added. “And all we’re doing is being fair, and frankly, I’m being very generous.”
President Trump threatened tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on those who buy Russian oil over the weekend. The tariff threat was in response to frustration regarding the inability to make a deal to end the war in Ukraine. Oil markets did not react much to the news as “there’s an element of fatigue with the [tariff] announcements,” said ING’s head of commodities strategy.
CORN: May corn futures saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Initial resistance at $4.55 is backed by the 10-day moving average at $4.57 1/4. Bulls are seeking to hold support at the psychological $4.50 mark, which is reinforced by Friday’s low of $4.42 on report driven selling.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures are working higher for the third consecutive session. Resistance stands at $10.34 3/4 then $10.50 on report driven strength. Bulls are seeking to hold support tat $10.24 1/2, the 40-day moving average, then $10.16 on a reversal lower.
WHEAT: May SRW futures continue to trade near contract lows. Bulls are looking to hold prices above psychological $5.25 support which is reinforced by support at $5.17 1/2, the contract low. Resistance stands at $5.30 then $5.36 3/4 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as technical resistance near contract highs are expected to weigh on prices. Confirmation of another week of record trade would likely fuel prices higher, but that will not be confirmed until mid-morning. Trade going into Friday was about steady with the prior week’s record. Wholesale beef continues to pull back from recent highs as Choice fell $2.90 to $332.82 and Select slipped 76 cents to $318.68 Friday.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as technical support is likely to encourage buyers. June futures finished Friday at the lower end of the recent range after opening the day in the upper end of the recent range. That volatility could spill over into today’s trade, but the outlook for hogs and pork remain supportive going into the spring grilling season, so the downside should be limited. After posting modest gains much of last week, the CME lean hog index is down 35 cents to $88.78 as of March 27. Pork cutout rebounded from recent losses Friday, climbing $1.72 to $96.56 Friday, led by strength in bellies and butts.