GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 7 to 9 cents higher; HRS 5 to 7 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat led strength overnight, with corn and beans recovering a portion of yesterday’s losses. Bulls will continue to look for strength following the reopening. Outside markets are unfavorable this morning as front-month crude oil futures continue to fall back from recent highs and the U.S. dollar index is modestly higher.
USDA reported daily export sales of 126,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Hurricane Milton is on track to make landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday along the west-central Florida Gulf Coast, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Milton’s center is headed just south of Tampa – an epicenter for U.S. phosphate production. The U.S. is the world’s third largest phosphate producer, with Florida accounting for nearly two-thirds of the American total, according to The Fertilizer Institute.
U.S. agricultural exports totaled $13.01 billion in August against imports of $17.19 billion, resulting in a monthly trade deficit of $4.18 billion. So far in fiscal year (FY) 2024, exports totaled $161.30 billion compared to imports of $188.82 billion, creating a cumulative deficit of $27.52 billion. The sector has recorded monthly deficits in 10 out of 11 months in FY 2024, with three months seeing deficits of $4 billion or more. USDA forecasts FY 2024 ag exports at $173.5 billion and imports at a record $204 billion for a projected record deficit of $30.5 billion, which would be up sharply from $17.1 billion in FY 2023.
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack during a White House ag event on Tuesday stressed the need for Congress to pass the over $1.5 trillion farm bill before the end of 2024 to avoid disruptions for farmers. If lawmakers fail to reach an agreement by the end of December, new legislation could be delayed for an extended period, particularly with a new Congress and administration taking office. Vilsack also noted that farmers impacted by Hurricane Helene could see crop insurance payouts by early November. Conservation funding and its use, a key debate in the farm bill, remains unresolved, with Democrats opposing Republican proposals to broaden conservation fund applications.
CORN: December corn futures posted gains overnight. Initial resistance stands at $4.24, while continued strength finds resistance at the Oct. 2 high close of $4.32 1/2. A resurgence of selling pressure finds support at yesterday’s low of $4.19 1/4 then the 40-day moving average at $4.14 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw modest corrective buying overnight. The 40-day moving average, currently at $10.28 1/4, limited gains overnight. Support lies at $10.13, which limited losses Tuesday, then the psychological $10.00 mark.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continue to lead strength. Prices maintain a six-week uptrend on the daily bar chart. Resistance comes in at $6.05 then the 200-day moving average at $6.14 3/4. Initial support lies at $5.93 3/4 then Monday’s low of $5.84.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher as technical strength is buttressed by continued gains in Choice beef. December live cattle futures maintain a tidy uptrend on the daily bar chart, which drove prices higher Tuesday. Choice beef climbed another 91 cents to $306.84 on Tuesday, marking a nearly $10.50 gain from the Sept. 26 low. Select cutout dipped 72 cents to $288.61. The recent surge in Choice beef has helped partially offset the climb in cattle prices, though pacer margins remain in the red.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a firmer tone driven by technical buying, though profit-taking could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is down 4 cents to $84.22 as of Oct. 7. While the decline was well short of yesterday’s drop, seasonal weakness is likely to persist in the cash market. Pork cutout fell $1.24 to $94.81 Tuesday, with loins, butts, picnics and bellies lower. The CME index has become more heavily influenced by pork cutout, so wholesale pork could lead price action in the near term.