GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 13 to 15 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 2 to 4 cents lower, HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led weakness overnight with corn and wheat following to the downside. The key will be if strength returns after the open, which has been the recent norm. Outside markets are unfavorable this morning, as front-month crude oil futures are facing profit-taking from recent strength and the U.S. dollar index is modestly higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 166,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his U.S. corn crop estimate at 15.09 billion bu. on a yield of 182.5 bu. per acre. His soybean production estimate remained at 4.44 billion bu. on a yield of 51.5 bu. per acre. Cordonnier has a neutral bias toward both crops.
USDA rated 64% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 13% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 64% “good” to “excellent” and 11% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop slipped 0.1 point to 365.9, while the soybean crop declined 1.6 points to 358.3. The CCI ratings are still 29.7 points (8.8%) above year-ago for corn and 26.1 points (7.8%) above for soybeans. Click here for details.
A Russian missile hit a Palau-flagged vessel in Ukraine’s southern port of Odesa on Monday, killing a Ukrainian national and injuring five crew members in the second such attack in as many days, officials said. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba identified the vessel as the Optima and said it arrived in Odesa hours before the attack. The ship attacked on Sunday in the nearby port of Pivdennyi was the Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged Paresa, which had a cargo of 6,000 MT of corn.
CORN: December corn futures traded lower overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold initial support at $4.22 1/2, the 10-day moving average, which capped most of the downside overnight. Additional selling finds support at $4.17 3/4. Resistance comes in at yesterday’s high of $4.27 then the for-the-move high close of $4.32 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to see relative weakness. Prices are poised to test uptrend line support at $10.12, which is backed by the psychological $10.00 mark. Bulls are seeking to reclaim resistance at $10.29, the 40-day moving average, which is backed by $10.41.
WHEAT: December SRW futures followed soybeans lower overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above yesterday’s low of $5.84, which is reinforced by the 40-day moving average at $5.79 1/2. Resistance stems from $5.91 1/2, while further strength seeks to overcome the psychological $6.00 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by cash fundamentals. Last week’s cash cattle average rose for the fourth consecutive week, climbing 74 cents to $186.89. Packer cutting margins have dipped deep into the red, which draws some question as to whether stronger cash prices will continue this week, with cash trade likely being pushed late into the week. Wholesale beef prices surged Monday, with Choice cutout climbing $3.35 to $305.93 and Select firming $1.72 to $289.33. Movement was relatively light at 106 loads.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone on profit-taking. After scoring a fresh for-the-move high early Monday, prices reversed and closed well off session highs. The resumption of seasonal weakness in the CME lean hog index, which is down 57 cents to $84.26 as of Oct. 4, is likely to weigh on nearby futures as well. December futures are currently trading well above last winter’s seasonal low, indicating traders anticipate a much tamer seasonal downturn, but that could leave the door open for futures weakness. Pork cutout was up $1.74 to $96.05 Monday, driven higher by gains in picnics and butts. Movement rebounded to 338.08 loads, a sign of resurgent grocer demand.