GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 10 to 12 cents higher.
Wheat: 3 to 10 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn futures rose for a third straight session overnight after USDA’s harvest progress update fell short of trade expectations and concerns lingered over disruptions of Ukrainian supplies. Soybeans and wheat also rose. Malaysian palm oil futures surged 5.5% to a one-week high as crude oil jumped nearly $2 to near a two-week high. U.S. stock index futures signal a firmer open and the U.S. dollar index is down more than 850 points.
U.S. weather will be favorably mixed in many areas, although the Delta and Southeast will be driest for the longest period of time in this coming week. HRW wheat areas in the central and southwestern Plains are advertised to get some rain over the next 10 days, “but this should not be the start of a trend change,” World Weather Inc. said. “Most of the precipitation is not likely to have a huge benefit to soil moisture, but there will be pockets of improved planting, emergence and establishment.”
Russia’s grain production is set to grow by about 5 MMT a year thanks to its incorporation of four Ukrainian territories, Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said. “Considering the arable land that exists there, I think at least 5 MMT of grain will be added to the Russian savings box. I also think that we’ll get other crops,” he was quoted as saying by the state news agency TASS. The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin was likely to sign laws today to annex the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, representing about 18% of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory.
Ukrainian farmers had seeded 1.1 million hectares of winter wheat as of Oct. 3, according to the country’s ag ministry, down from 3.1 million hectares on the same date last year. Local officials and analysts said rains across most of the country and a lack of funds are the main reasons for the delay. The ag ministry did not provide a forecast of the 2023 winter wheat area, although Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky told Reuters in August planted area could fall to 3.8 million hectares from 4.6 million a year earlier because of Russia’s invasion.
Indonesia may extend an export levy waiver on the edible oil to the end of this year, its chief economic minister said. Indonesia waived levies imposed on exports of palm oil products starting in mid-July to help reduce supplies that accumulated after a three-week export ban in late April, which was designed to stabilize local cooking oil prices. The levy waiver policy is currently scheduled to end after Oct. 31.
South Korea purchased 65,000 MT of Australian feed wheat. Japan is seeking 97,343 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender. Algeria tendered to buy a nominal 50,000 MT of durum wheat from unspecified origins. Tunisia tendered to buy 150,000 MT of soft milling wheat, 100,000 MT of durum and 100,000 MT of feed barley – all optional origin. Jordan passed on tender to buy 120,000 MT of optional origin wheat and issued a tender for a similar amount with a later deadline.
CORN: USDA late Monday reported 20% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, up from 12% a week earlier but slightly behind the 22% average for that date the past five years. Progress also fell short of analysts’ expectations to harvest to be about 22% finished.
December corn overnight fell as low as $6.76 1/2, about two cents above support drawn from a trendline from the July low, before rebounding. A drop under trendline support may open a test of last week’s low at $6.61 1/2.
SOYBEANS: USDA said the U.S. soybean crop was 22% harvested as of Sunday, up from 8% a week earlier but behind the 25% five-year average. The pace topped analysts’ expectations averaging 20%. The crop was rated 55% “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week. November soybeans overnight rose as high as $13.87 1/2, still near a nine-week low of $13.61 1/4 posted Monday.
WHEAT: USDA reported 40% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, up from 31% the previous week but behind the 44% five-year average. Plantings also fell short of the 44% analysts expected.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady-firmer
HOGS: Steady-firmer
CATTLE: Live cattle futures may gain followthrough buying from Monday’s firm close and signs of strength in wholesale beef. Choice beef cutout values rose $2.19 Monday to $245.94 on strong movement of 116 loads. USDA-reported live steers average $144.78 last week, down slightly from $144.94 the previous week. Traders expect generally steady cash trade again this week but expectations could increase if futures and wholesale beef prices build on Monday’s strength. December live cattle rose 97.5 cents Monday to $148.025, the contract’s highest closing price since Sept.23.
HOGS: Lean hog futures may gain support from indications the market may have established a near-term bottom following a steep slide in late September. The CME lean hog index is down 58 cents to 94.33, the lowest since February. The seasonal decline in the index has been persistent, but there haven’t been any days with major losses. October hog futures finished Monday $5.555 below today’s cash index quote, suggesting traders anticipate the price decline to persist. Pork cutout values rose $2.34 Monday from an eight-month low at the end of last week to $99.93 December lean hogs rose $1.50 Monday to $77.725.