GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 4 to 6 cents lower; HRW 6 to 8 cents lower; HRS 3 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans favored the upside, corn traded narrowly near unchanged and wheat favored the downside overnight. Weakness in long-term bonds continue to stoke volatility in outside markets. Front-month crude oil futures continue to rally off long-term support and the U.S. dollar index is modestly lower to start the day.
USDA reported daily sales of 150,000 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations in 2024-25.
The state of California and a group representing major U.S. passenger and cargo airlines said they had reached an agreement to sharply boost the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The California Air Resources Board (CARB) and Airlines for America, an industry trade organization representing American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, FedEx and others, committed to a goal to increase the availability of SAF for flights within California to 200 million gallons by 2035. That would meet about 40% of intrastate travel demand and is more than 10 times current levels.
Faced with a shortage of foreign reserves, Argentina’s central bank is turning to an unusual source of funding for this time of year – carry trade by grain exporters, Bloomberg reports. Selling soybeans, wheat and corn, grain exporters can borrow dollars from banks, unlike most Argentines hampered by capital controls. They then sell those dollars and invest the pesos they receive in return in high-yield local currency assets. Dollars are available to the central bank, boosting its reserves. That carry trade, however, comes with a risk for exporters, as they depend on the central bank to keep devaluing the peso at a steady pace. The dollar boon also could end if banks lend less to exporters, or grain ends up being stored instead of being sold.
Export sales for the week ended Oct. 24:
Corn: Net sales of 2.342 MMT for 2024-25, down 35% from the previous week but up 7% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for unknown destinations, Mexico and Japan. Sales were in the lower end of expectations of 1.8 to 3.5 MMT. Exports totaled 788,000 MT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 2.273 MMT for 2024-25, up 6% from the previous week and 39% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China and unknown destinations. Sales were in the middle of expectations ranging from 1.6 to 2.8 MMT. Exports totaled 2.445 MMT with China receiving the bulk of the total.
Wheat: Net sales of 441,400 MT for 2024-25, down 23% from the previous week and 14% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico. Sales came in the middle of expectations ranging from 300,000 to 600,000 MT. Exports totaled 244,400 MT, a marketing year low.
CORN: December corn futures favored the downside most of the overnight session. Prices have stalled just below the converged 10-day, 20-day and 40-day moving averages at $4.13, which stands as resistance. Support comes in at $4.10 then $4.06 3/4.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw continued strength overnight. The 10-day moving average at $9.96 1/4 stalled gains overnight, while additional resistance lies at $10.02 1/2. Support lies at $9.81 1/4 then yesterday’s low of $9.77 1/4 on a reversal lower.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continue to trend lower on the daily bar chart. Bulls are seeking to close prices above stiff resistance at $5.72. Support comes in at $5.65 1/2 then this week’s low of $5.57 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by reports of relative strength in the cash market. December live cattle futures saw heavy selling pressure, though losses yesterday were limited by the mid-October lows. Reports of cash cattle trade in the Southern Plains put cattle prices modestly below a week ago, though many feedlots continued to hold out for higher bids. Wholesale beef prices continued to pullback, with Choice cutout falling $1.17 to $319.44 and Select sinking 64 cents to $289.32 on Wednesday. Movement has remained strong, coming in at 154 loads yesterday, indicating robust grocer demand under the market. USDA reported net beef sales of 13,900 MT in 2024, down 17% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher on continued robust technical and fundamental strength. December lean hogs are overbought on the daily bar chart, which could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is up another $1.05 to $86.78 as of Oct. 29, extending the string of gains to nine consecutive days, during which the index has jumped $2.92. Today’s gain is the largest since April. Wholesale pork prices are up another 41 cents to $101.48, led higher by bellies, despite all other cuts posting losses on the day. USDA reported net pork sales of 44,800 MT in 2024, up 16% from the four-week average.