GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents lower; HRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded with a mixed tone overnight, though buying interest increased into the break. Bureau of Economic Analysis released Q3 U.S. GDP data this morning, the U.S. economy expanded an annualized 2.8% in Q3 2024, below 3.0% in Q2 and forecasts of 3.0%. Personal spending and consumption of goods continues to drive GDP higher, while slowdowns in fixed investment, residential investment and structures dragged on growth. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are posting strong corrective gains while the U.S. dollar index is around 100 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China, 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations and 273,048 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations—each for delivery in 2024/25.
As we reported in “Evening Report” on Tuesday, the European Union will impose higher tariffs of up to 45.3% on electric vehicles (EVs) from China, starting today. A German government spokesperson said today there were “clear expectations” for the European Commission to reach an agreement with China on punitive tariffs on EVs.
We met with David Wasserman, election analyst for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. He predicts a GOP sweep of the White House (Trump 60%/40% vs. Harris), Senate (51-54 seats) and House (219-216 control). It may take a few days or longer to decide some elections, especially in the House. If so, that could delay Congress’ timeline for key year-end items.
USDA Deputy Secretary Xochitl Torres Small announced $239 million in grants to support domestic biofuel production. Of this, $200 million comes from the Biobased Market Access and Development Program, funded by the Commodity Credit Corporation and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA/Climate Act). The remaining $39 million will be distributed through the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program (HBIIP).
CORN: December corn futures traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Initial resistance stems from yesterday’s high of $4.14 3/4, which is backed by $4.19 1/4. Support comes in at $4.13 1/4, the 40-day moving average, then $4.10 on a reversal back lower.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures posted corrective gains overnight after making a fresh for-the-move low. Resistance stands at $9.75 then the 10-day moving average at $9.82 3/4. Initial support comes in at the overnight low of $9.63 3/4, which is reinforced by the Aug. 16 low at $9.55.
WHEAT: December SRW futures rejected downtrend resistance overnight. Bulls failed to overcome resistance at $5.74 overnight, which stems from the early October highs and has capped each rally this month. Support comes in at $5.65 3/4 then Monday’s low of $5.57 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open lower on followthrough selling. December live cattle futures posted a bearish reversal on Tuesday after reaching the highest intraday price since early July. Weaker wholesale beef prices likely played a role in that weakness as Choice cutout dropped $2.89 to $320.61 and Select sunk $2.22 to $289.96. While packer margins remain solidly in the black, the weakness in futures and the wholesale market is likely to weigh on cash cattle prices, especially considering the current rally in cash cattle prices is already long in the tooth.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, though overbought conditions could limit gains after the open. December lean hog futures surged to a fresh contract high on Tuesday, fueled by technical buying and short-covering. Cash hog fundamentals remain supportive, but with seasonal weakness looming and December futures holding just a $2.905 discount to the cash index, opportunistic traders are likely to begin adding short positions. Still, fundamentals remain strong. The CME lean hog index is up another 18 cents to $85.73 as of Oct. 28 and pork cutout maintained most of Monday’s surge higher, falling 88 cents to $101.07 yesterday.