GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents lower.
Wheat: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each gapped lower on the overnight open, though corn and wheat saw limited followthrough selling pressure. Reports of rain in South America and increased plantings likely weighed heavily on soybean prices. Outside markets are favoring the bears this morning as front-month crude oil futures are sharply lower, though the dollar index is modestly weaker.
USDA reported daily sales of 124,000 MT of corn for delivery to Japan and 120,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations—each for the 2024-25 marketing year.
Brazil’s soybean planting reached 36% of estimated area as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, up 18 percentage points from the previous week but still behind 40% on that date last year. After a slow start, farmers in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top production state, actively planted soybeans as rains developed. AgRural noted Brazilian farmers planted 8 million hectares (19.8 million acres) of soybeans during the week. Brazil’s corn planting advanced to 52%, one point behind last year at this time. Rain fell across center-west and center-south Brazil during the weekend and more rainfall through these areas is expected over the next two weeks. Southern Brazil and Argentina will be dry through Thursday, followed by increasing rainfall chances for late this week through next week.
Oil prices fell sharply after Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran avoided targeting key oil and nuclear infrastructure. Iran’s measured response, signaling no immediate retaliation, helped ease fears of regional supply disruption. The U.S. had urged Israel to avoid key Iranian sites to prevent further escalation. Analysts suggest that market attention is shifting from geopolitical risks to concerns over potential oversupply in 2025, with OPEC nations expected to unwind production cuts by year-end.
Election-year politics is clearly the focus in Washington with Nov. 5 elections deciding the fate of the White House, House and Senate. Polls suggest a tight race for the presidency and the House, with most expecting a GOP takeover of the Senate. Key economic data this week includes the advance estimate of U.S. third quarter GDP on Wednesday, the personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s favored inflation gauge — on Thursday and the October employment report on Friday. Agricultural reports are highlighted by USDA’s soy and grain crush data for September on Friday.
CORN: December corn futures saw followthrough selling overnight. Prices hovered near the 40-day moving average at $4.13 1/2 overnight, marking that area as a key pivot. Strength finds resistance at $4.21 1/2 while sellers are seeking to overcome support at $4.06 3/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continued Friday’s weakness overnight. Continued selling finds support at the psychological $9.75 mark, which is backed by last week’s low at $9.69. Resistance stands at $9.88 3/4 then last week’s high close at $9.97 1/2.
WHEAT: December SRW futures traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Strength seeks to overcome resistance at $5.72 1/4, which is reinforced by resistance at $5.78. Bulls are seeking to hold support at the overnight low of $5.61 1/4, which is backed by downtrend line support at $5.58.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a firmer tone as cash fundamentals continue to underpin futures, though profit-taking could limit gains after the open. Cash cattle prices will rise for the seventh consecutive week, though last week’s official average will not be released until later today. Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report was neutral, with cattle on feed, placements and marketings each coming in near pre-report expectations. Choice beef resumed the recent uptrend, climbing $1.07 to $322.24 Friday, while Select firmed 74 cents to $295.08. Strong wholesale beef prices have kept cutting margins solidly in the black, supporting the cash cattle market.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as cash fundamentals continue to climb contra-seasonally, though nearby December hogs continue to struggle against resistance at the psychological $80.00 mark. The CME lean hog index is up another 22 cents to $85.43 as of Oct. 24, the highest mark since Sept. 10. Pork cutout climbed 79 cents to $98.94 Friday, led by a $8.31 jump in bellies, though movement slowed to 252.99 loads. Traders will keep a close eye on pork demand, as strength in cutout has led the index higher in the past couple of weeks and a slowdown in cutout values could point to a resumption of seasonal weakness.