GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 11 to 13 cents higher.
Wheat: HRW and SRW 2 to 4 cents lower, spring wheat 1 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Winter wheat futures fell near a five-week low as the overnight session ended on ideas rains this week across the central U.S. will improve crop conditions. Corn futures also fell, while soybeans firmed. Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.7%, while front-month crude oil futures were up more than $1. U.S. stock index futures signal a weaker open, while the U.S. dollar index is down around 550 points this morning.
Rain from northern Arkansas to western Michigan and southeastern Wisconsin Tuesday and early today should lead to improved runoff for the middle Mississippi River that may work its way downstream, World Weather Inc. said. “The past two days of rain in Missouri, eastern Iowa and Illinois was very helpful in bringing moisture to the soil and improving runoff,” the forecaster said.
The U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level since Sept. 20 overnight in a continuation of the recent pullback as weak U.S. economic data drove speculation the Fed will slow its interest rate hikes after November. The euro climbed back above parity against the dollar for the first time in a month, while other major currencies also reached multi-week highs against the greenback. The dollar index is still around 110.00, up around 15% for the year.
Grain merchant Bunge Ltd raised its full-year earnings outlook after posting an adjusted third-quarter profit that topped expectations. The company’s stronger forecast was attributed to favorable market conditions, including tight global crop supplies and strong demand.
The ag attaché in Buenos Aires cut its 2022-23 Argentine wheat crop peg to 15.5 MMT, 2 MMT less than USDA’s official forecast earlier this month, citing “dry conditions.” The post lowered its 2022-23 Argentine wheat export outlook to 10 MMT, also 2 MMT less than USDA’s forecast.
Belarus expects a record grain crop of about 11 MMT this year, the country’s ag minister said. To date, Belarusian farmers have harvested 9.8 MMT of grain, including rapeseed. The ag minister said the country will have sufficient supplies to meet domestic needs and export surplus supplies onto the world market.
Algeria bought 80,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat, with additional purchases possible. South Korea tendered to buy 128,000 MT of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S., Australia and Canada.
CORN: December corn overnight rose as high as $6.89 3/4, the contract’s highest intraday price since Oct. 17, before fading to modest losses.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans climbed as high as $13.95 overnight after gaining 10 cents Tuesday to $13.82. Prices are nearing resistance in the $13.99 to $14.00 area from a trendline drawn from a mid-September high. A push above that resistance level may prompt bulls to target the October high at $14.14.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat overnight fell to $8.28, just above Tuesday’s low of $8.26 3/4. Further weakness may have bears targeting a late-September low at $8.19 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady-firm
HOGS: Steady-firm
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are supported by cash market strength that has fueled this week’s rally to contract highs but could also see followthrough corrective pressure from Tuesday’s lower close as traders await cash cattle trade. Futures are still short-term overbought, but Tuesday’s declines did little chart damage, which could drive the next upside push. Wholesale beef strength should also underpin futures. Choice beef cutout values surged $3.51 Tuesday to $261.43, the highest daily average since Aug. 29. Movement was strong at 149 loads. December live cattle fell 82.5 cents Tuesday to $153.30 after posting a contract high at $154.25.
HOGS: Lean hogs are supported by firming cash fundamentals and bullish technicals but could see further consolidation after surging to two-month highs at the beginning of the week. The CME lean hog index is up 14 cents to $94.81 (as of Oct. 24), the eighth gain in the past nine days and the highest level since Sept. 29. The recent strength has fueled speculation the index may have posted an early seasonal low, though it’s too early to know for sure. Pork cutout values tumbled $3.44 Tuesday to a three-week low of $98.49, led by a drop of nearly $14 in bellies. But movement was strong at 416 loads. December lean hogs rose 52.5 cents Tuesday to $88.45.