GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: 4 to 9 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Winter wheat futures fell to a one-month low overnight on prospects for moisture relief in the U.S. Plains. Corn also fell, while soybeans were steady to slightly firmer. Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.7% to an eight-week high, while front-month crude oil futures are down around 50 cents. U.S. stock index futures signal a weaker open, while the U.S. dollar index is weaker.
Beneficial rain fell from northern and eastern Texas to Wisconsin Monday, improving topsoil moisture, World Weather Inc. said. The lower Ohio River Basin, Tennessee River Basin and lower Mississippi River Basin will receive light rain of 0.20 to 0.75 inch today, with additional rainfall of 0.50 inch to nearly 2.0 inches late this weekend. The rain “might contribute to a little runoff, but river levels are unlikely to experience a dramatic rise,” the forecaster said. Still, “any small rise… might lead to a little less restriction on barge movement and a lower premium on freight costs, but more rain will still be needed to induce a sustainable change.”
China’s economic growth is hitting an early speed bump in the fourth quarter as Covid-19 curbs and anxieties further tapped the brakes on travel and shipping, constraining consumption and commerce. Mobility statistics – from metro passenger traffic in cities and flight cancellations to domestic container handling at major ports – have worsened in October despite falling local coronavirus cases, suggesting Covid-19 preventive measures, or fear of those measures, are still stifling economic activity.
Ukraine’s exports of agricultural products could reach 7.5 MMT in October, a rise of 8.7% from the 6.9 MMT it exported last month, the deputy chair of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council said on Tuesday. The official didn’t give a commodity-by-commodity breakdown of his export forecast.
Ukraine maintained its forecast for winter wheat seedings at 3.8 million hectares despite planting delays due to unfavorable weather. The ag ministry said farmers had planted 3.1 million hectares to winter wheat as of Oct. 25. Another 500,000 hectares of other winter grains had been sown. Planted area will be down significantly from last year when Ukraine seeded 6.5 million hectares to winter wheat.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. reported a 96% surge in third-quarter profits on robust demand for grain and oilseeds and tight global supplies. Strong oilseed processing margins and good global demand for soymeal and soyoil supported ADM’s crushing operations despite idled facilities in Paraguay and Ukraine.
U.S. exports of nitrogen fertilizers jumped to a multi-year high this summer after surging natural gas prices in Europe drove up costs of producing the crop nutrient there, making U.S. shipments more competitive, Reuters reported. Exports from the U.S. soared to 370,000 short tons in August, more than double the year-earlier total, according to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau data, compiled by industry group The Fertilizer Institute (TFI). That figure is the highest monthly total since TFI began tracking the data in 2013.
South Korea purchased a total of 134,000 MT in two separate tenders – 68,000 MT of optional origin corn excluding the Black Sea region and 66,000 MT likely to be sourced from South America or South Africa. Taiwan tendered to buy 38,515 MT of U.S. milling wheat.
CORN: December corn traded inside the previous day’s range overnight and is currently trading just under the 40-day moving average at $6.80 1/4. Further weakness may have bears targeting last week’s low at $6.74. Late Monday, USDA reported harvest at 61% complete as of Sunday, up from 45% a week earlier and ahead of the 52% average for that date for the previous five years. Harvest progress was slightly below trade expectations for 62% complete.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans overnight fell as low as $13.66, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Oct. 19. USDA late Monday said 80% of the soybean harvest was complete as of Sunday, up from 63% a week earlier and well-ahead of the 67% five-year average. Analysts on average expected 77%.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat overnight fell as low as $8.30, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $8.25 1/2 on Sept. 20. USDA reported 79% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, up from 69% a week earlier and slightly ahead of the 78% five-year average. Planting progress was short of trade expectations for about 81% complete.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady-firmer
HOGS: Steady-firmer
CATTLE: Live cattle may extend the recent rally to seven-year highs on continued strength in the cash market. Cash cattle averaged $150.07 last week, up $3.08 from the previous week’s yearly high and the highest price since July 2015. Showlist numbers are down sharply this week and market-ready fed cattle supplies will continue to tighten, sources reported, reinforcing a bullish outlook for cash and futures. While live cattle futures are short-term overbought, their premiums to the cash market are small, suggesting downside risk should be limited.
Wholesale beef also continued recent strength. Choice beef cutout values surged $4.21 Monday to $257.92, the highest daily average since Sept. 12, but movement was slower than recent weeks at 86 loads. December live cattle rose $1.70 Monday to $154.125, a lifetime-high close.
HOGS: Lean hog futures should remain supported by cash strength but could still experience followthrough corrective selling from Monday’s declines. The national direct cash hog price firmed 29 cents on Monday, despite weakness in Iowa/Minnesota and the western Corn Belt, suggesting supplies are tighter in other areas of the country. The CME lean hog index is up 62 cents to $94.67 (as of Oct. 21), the seventh increase in the past eight days. After sharp losses on Monday, December futures finished $6.745 below today’s cash index quote. Pork cutout values rose 99 cents to $101.93 on strong movement of nearly 343 loads. December lean hogs fell $1.20 Monday to $87.925, down from last Friday’s two-month high.