GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 12 to 15 cents higher.
Wheat: 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans continue to lead strength, while wheat spent most of the overnight session trading near unchanged. Export sales for the week ended Oct. 17 proved robust this morning, with corn sales posting the highest weekly total since May 2021. Outside markets are favorable this morning, as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher and the U.S. dollar index is over 200 points lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 227,600 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico, 165,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations and 198,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations—each during the 2024-25 marketing year. Today marks the seventh consecutive day of corn daily export sales.
The U.S. ag attaché in Australia estimates the country’s 2024-25 wheat production at 28.5 MMT, 1.9 MMT below the 10-year average and 3.5 MMT lower than USDA’s forecast in the October WASDE Report. The new forecast is also lower than the official forecast of 31.8 MMT from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) in early September but in line with many private crop watchers. The attaché expects Australia to export 20 MMT of wheat in 2024-25, down 1.2 MMT from last year but slightly above the 10-year average of 19.2 MMT.
The European Union is debating whether to hike tariffs on more Russian agricultural and food products, as well as fertilizers, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Several member states eager to limit Moscow’s revenues have been urging the bloc to impose sweeping levies on agricultural and fish imports from Russia and Belarus into the EU, on top of the higher duties on grain products set earlier this year. Others have urged caution, asking to assess the impact of any measures on European imports and food prices first, the people said. Separately, work is ongoing on a new sanctions package, according to the people.
Export sales for the week ended Oct. 17:
Corn: Net sales of 3.603 MMT for 2024-25, up 62% from the previous week and noticeably from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and unknown destinations. Sales topped analysts’ expectations of 2.2 to 3.3 MMT. Exports totaling 999,000 MT were nearly double a week ago.
Soybeans: Net sales of 2.152MMT for 2024-25, up 26% from the previous week and 47% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China. Sales were in the upper range of expectations from 1.2 to 2.4 MMT. Exports totaled 2.447 MMT with China receiving the bulk of the total.
Wheat: Net sales of 532,900 MT for 2024-25, up 6% from the previous week and 38% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico. Sales came in the middle of expectations ranging from 350,000 to 650,000 MT. Exports totaled 276,500 MT.
CORN: December corn futures continue to surge on robust export demand. Bulls next target is the 100-day moving average at $4.22 1/2, which capped overnight gains. Additional resistance lies at $4.25, then $4.32 1/2. Support lies at $4.19 1/4 then converged 10-day, 20-day and 40-day moving average support near $4.14.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to surge higher. Bulls are eyeing 40-day moving average resistance at $10.13 1/2, which sees little backing until the psychological $10.25 mark. Support comes in at $10.00, which is quickly reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $9.98, then $9.80.
WHEAT: December SRW futures traded in a tight range near unchanged overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome downtrend resistance at $5.84 with 40-day moving average resistance at $5.81 1/2 on the way. Support comes in at $5.72 3/4 then $5.62 1/2 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on continued cash fundamental strength, though technical selling could limit gains after the open. December futures continue to butt up against trendline resistance stemming from the March, July and October highs. Cash fundamentals continue to support higher cattle prices as packer margins are quite strong, leading feedlots to confidently hold firmer offers, though packer bids have been slow to materialize. Cash cattle trade is likely to be pushed late into the week, possibly after tomorrow’s Cattle on Feed Report. Choice cutout dipped $2.55 to $321.41 Wednesday, while Select firmed 97 cents to $295.77. USDA reported net beef sales of 16,700 MT for 2024, up 19% from the previous week and 11% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a firmer tone as contra-seasonal strength in cash fundamentals continues to support futures. December lean hog futures posted a high of $80.225 and closed at $80.175 on Wednesday, just below the contract high of $80.65 from June 2023 right after the contract moved onto the board. The CME lean hog index firmed another 32 cents to $84.66 as of Oct. 22, the fourth straight daily gain. Pork cutout continues to show strength as well, climbing 95 cents to $98.22 on Wednesday. Gains in picnics and bellies led cutout higher, while movement remained firm at 305.87 loads. USDA reported net pork sales of 22,200 MT for 2024, down 42% from the previous week and 45% from the four-week average.