GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans traded narrowly near unchanged overnight. Wheat saw relative weakness though saw heightened buyer interest into the break. Equities have fallen under pressure this week as rising longer-term interest rates are coming more into focus. Front-month crude oil futures continue to bounce and the U.S. dollar index continues to surge higher, up over 600 points.
USDA reported daily sales of 359,500 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024-25 marketing year, the fifth consecutive day of corn daily sales.
Center-west, center-south and northeastern Brazil received much-needed rain during the past week that improved soil moisture. World Weather Inc. says with more rain on the way this week, planting and establishment conditions will further improve or remain favorable across Brazil’s main production areas, though sustained rains are needed to support ideal long-term crop development. South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says soybean planting in the driest areas will happen rapidly with the rains, which means most of the crop will go through the critical reproductive stage at the same time and could cause logistical bottlenecks during harvest. Cordonnier left his Brazilian crop estimates at 165 MMT for soybeans and 125 MMT for corn.
Russia’s 2025 wheat production could decline for a third straight year, according to the first projections released by leading Black Sea consultancies IKAR and SovEcon. IKAR forecasts production in a range of 80 MMT to 85 MMT. SovEcon put its first crop projection at 80.1 MMT, which would be the smallest since 2021-22. The official estimate for this year’s wheat harvest stands at 83 MMT. Unfavorable weather, including heavy rain in some regions and drought in others, has complicated winter grain sowing across Russia, but IKAR said there “is still time for vegetation to emerge through November.” SovEcon said, “The poor condition of winter wheat raises concerns about an increased risk of winter kill and crop failure.”
Ukrainian farmers had sown 4.33 million hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest as of Oct. 21, or 83.5% of the expected area of 5.19 million hectares, the agriculture ministry said. Plantings included 3.85 million hectares of winter wheat, or 85.9% of the projected 4.5 million hectares. Farmers also seeded 421,300 hectares of winter barley and 62,500 hectares of rye.
CORN: December corn futures saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome 10-day moving average resistance at $4.10 1/4, which is backed by resistance at $4.13 1/4. Support comes in at $4.06 3/4 then uptrend support at $4.04.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures traded narrowly near unchanged overnight. Resistance stems from the Oct. 17 close at $9.88 3/4, which is quickly backed by the 10-day moving average at $9.92 3/4. Support lies at the psychological $9.75 mark then the for-the-move low of $9.68 1/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw relative weakness overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $5.66, which is reinforced by the Sept. 9 low of $5.60 1/2. Resistance comes in at $5.75 then the 40-day moving average at $5.81 1/2 on a reversal higher.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on continued cash fundamental strength, though profit-taking could limit gains after the open. Last week’s cash cattle average rose another 40 cents to $187.61, marking the sixth consecutive week of gains. Continued wholesale beef strength, noted by Choice cutout climbing another $2.21 to $322.86, is supporting packer margins, which were estimated at more than $61.00 per head above breakeven yesterday. Select cutout climbed $2.01 to $296.21 Monday. Strong packer margins could continue to support cattle prices, but traders are becoming more conservative in their positioning.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher as contra-seasonal strength persists in cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is up 27 cents to $84.23 as of Oct. 18, marking consecutive daily gains after the index posted a new seasonal low late last week. That helped push December futures to the highest mark in six months on Monday and persistent cash market strength is likely to continue to bleed into futures. Pork cutout was up $1.65 to $98.24 Monday, the highest mark since Sept. 3, led by strength in loins, hams and butts.