Ahead of the Open | October 21, 2024

Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the upside most of the overnight session, though corn and wheat fell near unchanged into the break.

Pro Farmer's Ahead of the Open
Pro Farmer’s Ahead of the Open
(Pro Farmer)

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.

Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.

Wheat: SRW 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher; HRW 2 to 4 cents higher; HRS 1 to 3 cents higher.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the upside most of the overnight session, though corn and wheat fell near unchanged into the break. Gold and silver surged higher in overnight trade, with gold setting a fresh record high. Front-month crude oil futures posted corrective gains, while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 150 points higher.

USDA reported daily sales of 169,926 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico, 130,000 MT of corn for delivery to South Korea, 198,192 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations and 380,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Each sale was for delivery in the 2024-25 marketing year.

Rain developed as expected in the Central and Southwestern Plains during the weekend, with the greatest amounts in southeastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico, but very little relief from drought occurred in the key wheat production areas of Kansas, Oklahoma or the Texas Panhandle. Additional rains are expected early this week in HRW areas, though World Weather Inc. says serious drought relief is not likely in the heart of HRW areas. Russia’s Southern Region, eastern Ukraine and western Kazakhstan received “some” needed rain during the weekend, but the 10-day forecast is warm and dry.

Brazil weekend rainfall was greatest from Goias to southern Minas Gerais and northern Sao Paulo. World Weather says Brazil’s weather is expected to be “erratic” over the next 10 days, with the greatest rainfall in dry center-west and center-south areas, though amounts may be lighter than some computer forecast models suggest, especially in center-west areas.

Brazil’s soybean planting advanced 10 percentage points to 18% as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, though that was still well behind 30% on that date last year and the slowest pace since 2020-21. Soybean planting in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul are both on the fastest planting pace since 2017-18, while Mato Grosso is running at the slowest rate since 2020-21. Brazil’s corn planting reached 48%, two points ahead of last year.

CORN: December corn futures were modestly higher overnight. Resistance comes in at $4.07 then the 10-day moving average at $4.09 3/4. Support comes in at the psychological $4.00 mark on resurgent selling pressure.

SOYBEANS: November soybean futures posted modest corrective gains overnight. Prices continue to trade in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. Resistance stands at $9.75 then $9.88 3/4, while bulls are seeking to keep prices above support at Friday’s low of $9.69 1/4 then $9.57.

WHEAT: December SRW futures struggled to maintain early overnight gains. Bulls are seeking to keep prices above support at $5.69, which is reinforced by $5.65 1/2. Resistance stands at the overnight high of $5.77 3/4 then the 40-day moving average at $5.82 1/4.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Higher.

HOGS: Choppy/lower.

CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of Friday’s strength. Climbing wholesale beef prices continue to support packer margins despite continued strength in the cash cattle market, which has allowed packers to raise cash cattle bids. Choice cutout firmed another $1.39 to $320.65 while Select rose 68 cents to $294.20. The Choice/Select spread increased to $26.45, which continues to point to a shortage of high-quality beef.

HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as technical resistance looms over the market, though firming cash fundamentals could limit losses after the open. December futures have struggled to overcome the $78.00 mark, trying and failing to break above that level late last week. The CME lean hog index inched up 11 cents to $83.96 as of Oct. 17. December lean hog futures finished last Friday $6.135 below today’s cash quote, a modest decline compared to the last couple of years. Pork cutout climbed 18 cents to $96.59 Friday, led by strength in bellies.