GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 1 to 3 cents lower; HRW 3 to 5 cents lower; HRS 1 to 3 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, soybeans favored the upside but slipped into the break and wheat surged on the overnight open but has since faced corrective selling. Some concerns are rising over a cold surge next week which may induce a snowstorm in the upper Midwest and northeastern Plains, limiting harvest progress in those areas. Outside markets are quiet, as bonds are trading near unchanged. Front-month crude oil futures are around 70 cents lower, continuing to base near the $87.00 mark. The U.S. dollar index is trading around 250 points lower.
The House remains in a state of gridlock as lawmakers failed for the second time to elect a new speaker, with no clear resolution in sight. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) fell well short of the required 217 votes on both Tuesday and Wednesday — 22 GOP lawmakers voted against Jordan’s speakership on Wednesday, highlighting the ongoing divisions within the House GOP conference. Jordan plans to proceed with a third speaker ballot today at noon ET. House Republican leaders are facing pressure from members who are eager to elect Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) as speaker pro tempore for the next approximately 80 days. The resolution, drafted by Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio), is expected to receive strong support. House Democrats have indicated their willingness to vote for it, but it is unclear what they have asked for to get their support. If the resolution passes, it would allow Jordan to effectively suspend his campaign for speaker without formally withdrawing. Jordan could then commit to resuming his bid for speaker once McHenry’s term concludes in January.
China’s ag ministry approved 37 genetically modified corn seed varieties and 14 GMO soybean varieties, moving one step closer to commercial planting of GMO crops. Large-scale trials of GMO corn and soybeans were carried out in 20 counties in five provinces this year, which the ag ministry said showed “outstanding” results. The list of approved varieties is open for public comment until Nov. 15. It is not clear if Beijing will fully allow commercial sales and production of GMO varieties next year as the government is expected to control areas where they can be planted.
Export sales for the week ended Oct. 12:
Corn: Net sales of 881,300 MT for 2023-24, which were down 3% from the previous week and 15% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily from Mexico, Guatemala and Colombia. Traders expected net sales between 500,000 MT and 1.1 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 1.372 MMT for 2023-24, up 30% from the previous week. Increases came primarily for China. Traders expected net sales between 950,000 and 1.625 MMT.
Wheat: Net sales of 632,800 MT for 2023-24, down 3% from the previous week but up 42% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China and the Philippines. Traders expected net sales between 350,000 and 800,000 MT.
CORN: December corn futures continue to maintain a tight uptrend on the daily bar chart, though bulls continue to struggle against harvest selling pressure just shy of the $5.00 mark. Bulls are seeking to hold initial support at $4.89 1/4, a break of which leads to a likely test of stiff support at $4.85. Resistance lies at $4.94 and is backed by the recent high at $4.99.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to lead the way higher. Buying stalled at the 100-day moving average overnight, currently at $13.15 3/4. This will stand as bulls initial target, which is backed by additional resistance at $13.26 1/4. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $13.07 1/4, then the psychological $13.00 mark.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continue to struggle against resistance at $5.85, though bulls have kept losses minimal thus far, indicating possible sustained strength. Additional resistance lies at $5.91, then the psychological $6.00 level. Bears are seeking to take out initial support of $5.76 1/4 before tackling additional support at $5.70.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open mostly lower as the market consolidates awaiting active cash cattle trade and Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report. Cutout values continue to struggle to garner much bullish momentum above the $300.00 mark in Choice and $275.00 in Select, likely limiting the willingness of packers to actively bid for cattle. Only light trading has taken place in the cash cattle market this week, with trade coming in roughly $1.00 higher in the far northern market. Most of this week’s cash cattle activity is likely to be pushed into Friday after USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report. USDA reported net beef sales of 400 MT for 2023, a marketing-year low and a fraction of the previous week.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open mostly lower as cash fundamentals continue to fall. The CME lean hog index dropped 45 cents today to $80.70 (as of Oct. 17). Though, yesterday’s average showed an uptick from the prior day (remember the index is a two-day average), which could limit selling pressure if the index sees another bounce similar to last week. December futures remain $12.675 below the index, which is about the normal cash decline from now until contract expiration. Wholesale pork prices fell $1.60 to $87.95, marking a new for-the-move low. Movement remained strong at 305.59 loads. USDA reported net pork sales of 30,700 MT for 2023, up 46% from the previous week and 10% from the four-week average.