GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 5 to 7 cents lower; HRW 3 to 5 cents lower; HRS 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn led strength overnight as both corn and soybeans build on Thursday’s strength. Wheat reversed lower and went into the break near session lows. Gold continues to march higher, with nearby futures hitting an all-time high this morning. Front-month crude oil futures continue to see selling pressure, while the U.S. dollar index is around 100 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 292,800 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, 125,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations and 21,000 MT of bean oil for delivery to Mexico, each slated for delivery during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Persistent dry weather in southern regions of Australia that suffered frost damage last month is lowering wheat yield potential but the country could still produce an above-average harvest due to favorable weather in other areas. South Australia is set to produce 2.8 MMT of wheat and Victoria 3.6 MMT this year, Commonwealth Bank analyst Dennis Voznesenski told Reuters, down from the five-year averages of 4.7 MMT and 4.6 MMT, respectively. Still, overall Australian production should come in around 30.6 MMT due to expected large harvests in Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland, where conditions have been better, Voznesenski said.
At the BRICS summit in Kazan from Oct. 22-24, Reuters reports Russia will advocate for a new international payment system to bypass U.S. dollar dominance and avoid Western sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to strengthen BRICS, now expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE, as well as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, as a geopolitical counterweight to the West. Moscow’s proposal includes a blockchain-based payments network backed by national currencies, a grain trading exchange and a new “BRICS Clear” platform for settling securities trade. The proposal envisages the extension of BRICS grain trading mechanisms to oil, natural gas and gold in the future. While these initiatives reflect Russia’s push for financial independence, consensus among the expanded membership may be challenging.
Export sales for the week ended Oct. 10:
Corn: Net sales of 2.226 MMT for 2024-25, up 82% from the previous week and up noticeably from the four-week average. Sales were were primarily for unknown destinations and Japan. Sales topped analysts’ expectations of 1.2 to 2.2 MMT. Exports totaled 501,800 MT were down noticeably from a week ago.
Soybeans: Net sales of 1.703 MMT for 2024-25, up 35% from the previous week and 16% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China. Sales were within the expected range from 1.0 to 2.2 MMT. Exports totaled 1.853 MMT, with 1.22 MMT shipped to China.
Wheat: Net sales of 504,100 MT for 2024-25, up 16% from the previous week and 57% from the four-week average. Mexico led purchases. Sales came near the upper end of expectations ranging from 250,000 to 550,000 MT. Exports totaled 393,100 MT.
CORN: December corn futures saw relative strength overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome downtrend line resistance at $4.09, which is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $4.11 1/4. Tentative support comes in at $4.04 1/4, though strong support lies at $4.00.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw modest gains overnight though went into the break nearer session lows. Continued strength finds resistance at $9.95 1/2 then the psychological $10.00 mark. Support comes in at $9.80 then yesterday’s low of $9.68 1/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures reversed lower overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $5.79 1/2, which is backed by the psychological $5.75 mark. Resurgent strength finds resistance at $5.91 1/2 then the psychological $6.00 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open mostly higher on reports of firmer cash cattle trade, though continued profit-taking could limit gains after the open. Cash cattle started trading at steady to $1.00 higher prices on Thursday, with the strongest bids in the Southern Plains. While some feedlots opted to hold out for even better prices, sales were relatively active. Wholesale beef prices ended higher Thursday, though Choice cutout did not rise as much as recently as movement jumped to 143 loads as packers took advantage of higher beef prices. Choice cutout firmed another 13 cents to $319.26 while Select firmed $1.15 to $293.52. USDA reported net beef sales of 14,100 MT for 2024, up 3% from the previous week but down 9% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as technical resistance looms over the market. December futures marked a fresh for-the-move high on Thursday but closed lower and below the prior highs as sellers took advantage. That leaves the door open for followthrough selling today, though a stronger-than-expected cash market, as noted by the CME lean hog index slipping just a penny to $83.84 as of Oct. 16, could support futures. Stronger wholesale pork, which climbed $1.56 to $96.41, could lend strength to futures as well. Pork prices were supported by strong gains in bellies and butts. USDA reported net pork sales of 38,100 MT for 2024, down 25% from the previous week but up 1% from the four-week average.