GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 1 to 3 cents lower; HRS 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans continue to lead weakness, though corn and wheat also saw a resurgence of selling pressure overnight. Outside markets were mixed overnight, with crude oil futures pivoting near unchanged and a weaker bond market which led to sustained gains in the U.S. dollar index, which currently up over 500 points.
USDA reported daily sales of 197,180 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico and 101,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations—each during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Spot gold prices set an all-time high on Thursday amid a flight to quality given heightened geopolitical tensions and a potential sign investors don’t believe the war against inflation is over. Gold has soared 30% this year and is on the cusp of reaching $2,700 an ounce.
Russia has granted Kazakhstan permission to transit grain through its territory for export to other countries starting today, but imposed a temporary ban on Kazakh grain imports to Russia, its agricultural watchdog said. Transit of grain will be possible if Kazakhstan provides phytosanitary certificates for the final destination country and ensures trans-shipment of grain from railway cars directly into export vessels. Russian watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor had previously said that from Sept. 23 its systems would automatically block the issuance of phytosanitary certificates for grain, grain products, sunflower seeds, tomatoes and peppers from Kazakhstan.
Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal (link) are increasingly upbeat about the U.S. economy, projecting steady GDP growth, moderating inflation and a manageable labor market slowdown. The probability of a recession within the next 12 months has dropped, aligning with expectations of cooling inflation and further interest rate cuts. Moreover, the economists predict that both inflation and the federal funds rate will decline faster than previously expected, reflecting the easing effect of the Federal Reserve’s September rate cut. The survey also explores which presidential candidates — Trump or Harris — would exert greater influence on inflation, interest rates, and the federal deficit.
Due to Monday’s government holiday, export sales data for the week ended Oct. 10 will be released Friday morning.
CORN: December corn futures gave up a portion of Wednesday’s gain overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above psychological $4.00 support, which is reinforced by support at $3.97. Resistance stems from $4.05, which is backed by the 10-day moving average at $4.11 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to face orderly selling. Prices fell below support at $9.75 overnight, marking that as initial resistance. Continued strength would find resistance at $9.85. Support lies at $9.61 1/2.
WHEAT: December SRW futures are consolidating near recent lows. Initial support stems from $5.79 1/2, which is reinforced by support at $5.75. Resistance comes in at $5.85 then the 10-day moving average at $5.88 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by technical strength. Live cattle futures saw little direction on Wednesday, trading on either side of unchanged and within Tuesday’s range. Climbing wholesale prices could support futures, but close attention will be on the cash market as cash cattle trade has been slow so far this week. Choice cutout climbed another $2.30 to $319.13 while Select rose 28 cents to $292.37. Choice beef has surged $22.76 since late September and is well above year ago at this time.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Wednesday’s gain in futures negated the prior two days of selling pressure, though stopped shy of last Friday’s for-the-move high, which could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is down 23 cents to $83.85 as of Oct. 15, a fresh seasonal low. Pork cutout climbed 45 cents to $94.85 on Wednesday, led by strength in ribs and picnics. Cutout continues to see little deviation from the $95.00 mark.