GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led corn higher in corrective strength, while wheat continued to undergo selling pressure in the overnight session. Bulls will seek to build on strength following strong daily sales. Outside markets are mixed this morning, as gold closes in on a record high, front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher and the U.S. dollar index is over 300 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 1.623 MMT of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 1.044 MMT is for delivery during 2024-25, with the remaining 579,120 MT for 2025-26. USDA also reported 332,000 MT of corn and 175,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
USDA announces $233 million in indemnity payments for farmers impacted by Hurricane Helene. The payments, issued under the Hurricane Insurance Protection-Wind Index (HIP-WI) and Tropical Storm (TS) endorsements, will help producers across several southeastern states recover from significant hurricane-related losses. Producers do not need to file a claim to receive an indemnity payment under HIP-WI. If a county is triggered, AIP will issue an indemnity payment in the coming weeks. This marks part of a broader $630 million in aid paid out in 2024 for multiple hurricanes. USDA also deployed response teams to impacted states to support recovery efforts.
A recent economic study commissioned by the American Soybean Association (ASA) and the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) highlights the potential negative consequences of a renewed U.S./China trade war on American farmers and rural communities. The study, conducted by the World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services, reveals that American-imposed tariffs could significantly harm U.S. producers while benefiting competitors like Brazil and Argentina. The study predicts an immediate and substantial drop in corn and soybean exports to China if a new trade war were to occur.
Russia’s Volga River Basin and the USDA-defined “Southern Region” will receive much-needed precipitation during the coming week that will likely promote aggressive late-season planting of winter wheat. World Weather Inc. notes that much more moisture will be needed to fix the moisture deficits and planted acreage may remain lower than usual. World Weather also notes portions of eastern Ukraine may remain too dry to support favorable late-season planting.
CORN: December corn futures saw modest buying overnight. Prices were supported by psychological $4.00 support, which is reinforced by $3.95. Resistance comes in at $4.04 1/4 then $4.07 1/2 on continued strength.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw corrective buying overnight. Resistance stems from the psychological $10.00 mark then the 10-day moving average at $10.12. A resurgence of selling pressure finds support at $9.91 then yesterday’s low of $9.81.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw followthrough selling overnight. Initial support at $5.75 limited overnight losses. Continued selling finds support at $5.65 1/2. Resistance stands at $5.84 then the 10-day moving average at $5.88 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by continued strength in cash fundamentals. Yesterday’s session of profit-taking could spur some followthrough selling, though the fundamental outlook remains quite bullish, as the rally in Choice beef, most recently up $3.51 to $316.83, has pushed packer margins back into the black. Select cutout climbed $2.99 to $292.09 Tuesday, keeping the Choice/Select spread wide at $24.74.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by technical buying. While the uptrend from the July low has paused, bulls still own the near-term advantage. Followthrough selling could shift momentum to the bears today, but sideways cash fundamentals have not been particularly bearish. The CME lean hog index is down 8 cents to $84.08, still above the late-September low. Pork cutout continues to pivot near $95.00, down 57 cents to $94.40 Tuesday, with most cuts seeing modest losses.