GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Soybeans: 9 to 11 cents lower.
Wheat: 3 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans continue to lead weakness, though corn, soybeans and wheat each saw followthrough selling pressure overnight. Each has done significant chart damage in the past couple of days, rendering a shift in momentum to the bears. Outside markets are unfavorable this morning as crude oil futures continue to undergo selling pressure and the U.S. dollar index is modestly higher. Long-term interest rates continue to trend lower, bidding up the dollar.
USDA reported daily export sales of 131,000 MT of soybeans to China and 120,000 MT of SRW wheat for delivery to Mexico, each during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Conab projects Brazil’s soybean crop will rise 12.7% to 166.05 MMT in 2024-25. Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to jump 13.14 MMT to 105.54 MMT in 2024-25. Conab pegged Brazil’s total corn production in 2024-25 at 119.74 MMT, up 3.5%. However, corn exports are expected to decline to 34 MMT in 2024-25, down 2 MMT from the current year.
Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report its members crushed 170.3 million bu. of soybeans in September, which would be up 7.8% from August and 2.9% above last year’s record for the month. Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of Sept. 30 were estimated at 1.083 billion lbs., down 4.9% from August and the smallest end-of-month supply since December 2014.
Mexican rail consortium Ferromex and U.S. railroad company Union Pacific Corp said they have stopped issuing permits for some grain rail shipments moving through Eagle Pass, Texas, after a recent train derailment in Mexico closed the track. The halt is a temporary measure until rail traffic gets cleared after the track reopens, Ferromex told Reuters. Total volume of grain movement between Union Pacific and Ferromex will not be affected.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has reaffirmed the country’s ban on the planting and consumption of genetically modified (GMO) white corn, emphasizing the commitment to food sovereignty. Mexican Secretary of Agriculture Julio Berdegué Sacristán reiterated that no transgenic white corn will be produced or consumed in Mexico. This stance challenges U.S. trade policies under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, with the U.S. having filed a case against Mexico’s policy. Mexico aims to be self-sufficient in white corn, beans and other crops while promoting fair trade for agricultural products. Sheinbaum made the comments in her Oct. 1 inaugural speech.h
CORN: December corn futures saw followthrough selling overnight. Initial support at $4.01 1/4 is quickly reinforced by the psychological $4.00 mark. Resistance comes in at $4.08 1/2 then $4.14, the 40-day moving average, on a return of buying.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to lead weakness. Initial support stems from $9.85, which is reinforced by $9.75. Initial resistance at $9.95 3/ is quickly backed by the psychological $10.00 mark.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw continued selling pressure overnight. The 40-day moving average will remain a key pivot at $5.82 3/4. Support lies at $5.75 1/2 while bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $5.91 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of Monday’s strength. Cash cattle averaged $187.21 last week, up 32 cents and the fifth consecutive weekly gain. Wholesale beef prices, particularly Choice beef, continue to march higher as well. Choice cutout firmed another $2.10 to $313.32 and Select climbed 38 cents to $289.10 on Monday. The recent surge in Choice beef has helped some packer margins back into the black, but the string of hefty purchases could limit cash cattle demand, potentially leading to a short-term top.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open mostly higher, as technical buying helps reverse some of yesterday’s losses. Uptrend support stemming from the August low stifled selling efforts on Monday and could continue to support prices today. The CME lean hog index is down 13 cents to $84.16 as of Oct. 11. December futures are settled Monday at a $8.36 discount to today’s cash quote, suggesting traders sense the cash index will drop an average of about $1.00 per week through mid-December. Pork cutout climbed 50 cents to $94.97 Monday, driven by strength in bellies, ribs and loins.