GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 3 to 5 cents lower; HRW 5 to 7 cents lower; HRS 4 to 6 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn led weakness overnight with soybeans and wheat both following to the downside. Harvest and winter wheat planting are expected to have had some interruptions in the northern Plains and eastern Midwest following rain over the weekend, though conditions are expected to be quite favorable in the next couple of weeks as conditions stay quite dry, aside from a couple organized bouts of rainfall. Today’s Crop Progress Report will be released tomorrow afternoon, delayed due to Columbus Day closing government offices today. Outside markets are unfavorable this morning, as front-month crude oil futures continue to consolidate from the early October rally and the U.S. dollar index is over 300 points higher.
Brazil’s soybean planting reached 8.2% of expected area as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, less than half of last year’s 17% pace for that date and the slowest since 2020-21. Most of the delay is in Mato Grosso, where producers are awaiting consistent rains before increasing planting. Producers in Parana, where rains have been much better, are planting soybeans at the quickest clip since 2018-19. Brazil’s first season corn crop was 42% planted, just ahead of 41% last year at this time.
Goldman Sachs upgraded its forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025 after Beijing unveiled a series of measures to shore up its economy. The bank expects China’s GDP to expand 4.9% this year, up from 4.7% previously. It also lifted its growth prediction for next year to 4.7% from 4.3%.
China imported 11.37 MMT of soybeans in September, down 770,000 MT (6.3%) from the all-time record in August but up 4.22 MMT (59.0%) from year-ago. Through the first nine months of this year, China imported 81.85 MMT of soybeans, up 8.1% from the same period last year.
CORN: December corn futures led weakness overnight. Continued selling pressure finds support at $4.10 then the Sept. 25 low of $4.08 1/2. Initial resistance stands at the 40-day moving average at $4.14 3/4 with further strength finding downtrend resistance at $4.17 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to face persistent selling pressure. Prices fell below the psychological $10.00 mark overnight, which marks initial resistance. Further strength would find resistance at $10.11 1/2. Support comes in at $9.95 1/2 then $9.85.
WHEAT: December SRW futures followed corn lower overnight. Bulls are seeking to keep prices above support at $5.92 1/4, which is reinforced by the 40-day moving average at $5.83 1/4. Resistance stems from the psychological $6.00 mark, with reinforcement from Friday’s high of $6.11 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on continued strength in cash fundamentals, though some profit-taking could limit gains after the open. The average cash cattle price climbed for the fifth consecutive week, though the official price won’t be known until later this morning. December futures are trading near par with the cash market and are likely to be heavily influenced by cash trade in the near term. Choice beef continued to climb, rising $1.27 to $311.22 on Friday, while Select dipped $2.01 to $288.72.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on continued technical strength, but a choppy cash market could limit trader optimism. The CME lean hog index is down 18 cents to $84.29 as of Oct. 10, remaining in the short-term choppy range from the September low of $84.01 to this month’s high of $84.90. October futures go off the board at noon today and closed on Friday at a modest discount to the index. Wholesale pork continues to chop near $95.00, most recently falling 40 cents to $94.47, led by weakness in loins.