GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each saw modest gains in the overnight session as positioning led trading ahead of today’s USDA reports. Bureau of Labor Statistics released producer price inflation (PPI) this morning. Producer prices were steady from August in September, below August’s 0.2% uptick and below expectations of a 0.1% rise. Annual PPI marked a seven-month low at 1.8%. Outside markets are unfavorable this morning as crude oil futures are modestly lower and the U.S. dollar index is over 200 points higher.
USDA reported daily export sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans and 577,928 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
USDA will update production forecasts for corn, soybean and cotton at 11:00 a.m. CT. Analysts expect slightly smaller crops, with the average pre-report estimates at 15.155 billion bu. for corn (15.186 billion bu. September), 4.579 billion bu. for soybeans (4.586 billion bu. in September) and 14.270 million bales for cotton (14.512 million bales in September). Final wheat production was set at 1.971 billion bu. in the Small Grains Summary at the end of September. The new production forecasts, along with changes to usage projections, will drive changes to projected new-crop ending stocks, which are expected to be 1.926 billion bu. for corn (2.057 billion bu. in September), 549 million bu. for soybeans (550 million bu. in September), 819 million bu. for wheat (828 million bu. in September) and 3.98 million bales for cotton (4.00 million bales in September)
At least seven Florida ports, including St. Petersburg and Jacksonville, remain closed due to Hurricane Milton. Port Tampa Bay, a key hub for fertilizer exports, has reopened with restrictions despite power outages. Fertilizer producer Mosaic Co., which had idled its Florida operations ahead of Milton’s arrival, said in a statement on Thursday it was working to confirm the safety of its employees and will “begin assessing the impact on our operations” when conditions allow. Citrus growers reported significant losses, with early crops heavily affected and ongoing fruit drops expected in the coming weeks.
President Joe Biden called on Congress to reconvene and pass emergency relief after Hurricane Milton caused extensive damage across central Florida. He warned that rebuilding efforts will require several billion dollars and suggested Congress will need to replenish FEMA’s disaster relief funds. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas echoed the call for additional funding, urging Congress to act once it returns from recess.
CORN: December corn futures saw modest strength overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at the 10-day moving average, currently at $4.21, then $4.25 on report driven strength. Selling finds uptrend line support at $4.15 with further weakness seeking to break below support at $4.12 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to consolidate near recent lows. Bulls ae seeking to overcome resistance at the converged 10-day, 20-day and 40-day moving averages at $10.28 to confirm an interim low is in place. Support lies at $10.11 1/2 with little additional backing until the psychological $10.00 mark.
WHEAT: December SRW futures maintain a tight uptrend on the daily bar chart. Initial resistance lies at yesterday’s high of $6.09 1/4 then the Oct. 2 for-the-move high close of $6.15 1/4. Support comes in at the psychological $6.00 mark then $5.89 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s technical strength. December futures forged a fresh for-the-move high yesterday and the recent move higher has been supported by climbing cash fundamentals. Cash cattle trade got underway with $1.00 higher prices than week-ago in the Southern Plains, while the northern dressed market reported generally steady prices. The strength in both futures and early cash trade this week is likely to give feedlots confidence to hold out for higher bids. Choice beef continued to climb, firming another $1.77 to $309.95 Thursday, while Select rose $2.10 to $290.73.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher as both the technical and fundamental outlooks continue to point to stronger prices. December futures continue to show robust technical strength, with followthrough buying from yesterday’s gain likely today. Slaughter supplies appear to be tighter than implied by USDA, as packers’ margins are solidly in the black, so it’s highly unlikely they’re intentionally slowing operations. The steep discount December futures hold to October makes it unlikely producers are intentionally holding back hogs. The CME lean hog index is steady with yesterday’s quote at $84.47. Pork cutout slipped 22 cents to $94.87 Thursday, led lower by bellies, loins and butts.