GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher; HRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS 3 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn saw relative strength overnight as soybeans and wheat favored the downside. Positioning is likely to drive trade ahead of today’s updated USDA production and supply and demand estimates. Front-month crude oil futures saw profit-taking overnight while the U.S. dollar index is over 200 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 107,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China, 130,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations and 200,480 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations — each during the 2024-25 marketing year.
USDA’s corn and soybean crop estimates aren’t likely to change much in the Crop Production Report at 11:00 a.m. CT. Analysts expect USDA to estimate corn production at 15.189 billion bu. (15.203 billion bu. in October) and the soybean crop at 4.557 billion bu. (4.582 billion bu. in October). Barring any supply-side surprises, adjustments to usage forecasts will impact changes to 2024-25 ending stocks. Analysts expect ending stocks of 1.946 billion bu. for corn (1.999 billion bu. in October), 532 million bu. for soybeans (550 million bu. in October) and 813 million bu. for wheat (812 million bu. in October). USDA’s global wheat production forecasts might draw the most attention given declining private crop forecasts for several countries.
China’s ag ministry raised its 2023-24 (Oct.-Sept.) import figures for soybeans and corn. Soybean imports increased 7.4% from the previous year to 104.74 MMT, 2.45 MMT higher than the October estimate. Corn imports jumped 25.1% to 23.41 MMT, up 410,000 MT from last month’s estimate. The ministry left the 2024-25 import forecasts at 94.6 MMT for soybeans and 13 MMT for corn.
Delayed planting because of heavy rain in western Europe has raised concerns with a potential repeat of the past growing season, which resulted in one of the worst harvests in decades. In France, farmers had planted just 62% of intended wheat acres, behind 65% at this point last year and the five-year average of 77%. Germany, Poland and the UK have also dealt with wet fall conditions, though not to the degree of France.
CORN: December corn futures continue to climb higher. Next resistance stands at the Oct. 2 close of $4.32 1/2, which is quickly backed by $4.35. Support stands at $4.24 then the 10-day moving average at $4.20 1/2.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw modest profit-taking overnight. Resistance comes in at $10.25, yesterday’s high of $10.27 3/4, then $10.35. Support lies at the 40-day moving average at $10.16 1/4 then $10.06 3/4 on report driven selling.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continue to chop sideways. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $5.76 3/4, the 40-day moving average, which is quickly backed by $5.80. Support comes in at $5.68 1/4 then this week’s low of $5.62.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Mixed.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a varied tone as futures continue to chop near recent lows. Cash cattle activity remains limited so far this week, with very little trade taking place aside from a small lot trading hands in Kansas on Monday at lower prices. Plunging wholesale beef prices are likely to weigh on cash prices as packers work to protect margins. Choice cutout dropped $6.13 to $309.46 Thursday while Select sunk $3.48 to $279.72. Packers maintain large inventories of beef following recent hefty purchases in the cash cattle market, which is likely to continue to weigh on beef cutout values.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as steep discounts to the cash index are likely to spur buying in futures. The CME lean hog index is up another 37 cents to $90.61 as of Nov. 6, the 15th consecutive daily gain. While gains have slowed this week, the index is still $9.41 above nearby December futures, which could spark buying. Traders are likely to keep a close eye on falling pork cutout values, as the lean hog index has been heavily supported by strong pork prices. Cutout plunged $4.19 to $97.96 Thursday, driven by a $17.05 drop in bellies, though all cuts except loins and butts posted losses on the day.