Ahead of the Open | November 7, 2024

Soybeans led strength overnight while corn and soybeans saw action on either side of unchanged.

Pro Farmer's Ahead of the Open
Pro Farmer’s Ahead of the Open
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GRAIN CALLS

Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.

Soybeans: 10 to 12 cents higher.

Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents higher; HRW steady to 2 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight while corn and soybeans saw action on either side of unchanged. Export sales continue to prove quite strong for both corn and beans. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures continue to pullback from recent highs and the U.S. dollar index is down over 500 points after yesterday’s big gain.

USDA reported daily sales of 120,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.

China imported 8.09 MMT of soybeans in October, down 3.28 MMT (28.8%) from September but up 2.93 MMT (56.8%) from last year. Through the first 10 months of this year, China imported 89.94 MMT of soybeans, up 11.2% from the same period last year and just 10.37 MMT shy of the record in 2020. Chinese buyers are expected to rush to import soybeans before Donald Trump takes office in January.

Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Donald Trump on his U.S. presidential win and urged both nations to find the “right way to get along,” amid the threat of sharply increased tariffs and another trade war. Stable, sound and sustainable U.S./China relations serve the interests of both, Xi said, adding that other countries would expect the two powers to “respect each other (and) co-exist peacefully.” Xi also called for strengthened dialogue to properly manage differences. Echoing Xi’s call for stability, the commerce ministry said China was willing to jointly develop healthy economic and trade ties the United States.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates 25 basis points following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting at 1:00 p.m. CT. But the path of future rate cuts is uncertain after Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, which could stoke inflation and turn the Fed more hawkish.

Export sales for the week ended Oct. 31:

Corn: Net sales of 2.767 MMT for 2024-25, up 18% from the previous week and from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico, unknown destinations and Japan. Sales were above expectations of 1.5 to 2.5 MMT. Exports totaled 917,600 MT.

Soybeans: Net sales of 2.037 MMT for 2024-25, down 10% from the previous week but up 10% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China. Sales were in the upper end of expectations ranging from 1.2 to 2.2 MMT. Exports totaled 2.424 MMT with China receiving the bulk of the total.

Wheat: Net sales of 374,700 MT for 2024-25, down 9% from the previous week and 20% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and unknown destinations. Sales came in the middle of expectations ranging from 250,000 to 550,000 MT. Exports totaled 236,900 MT—a marketing year low.

CORN: December corn futures traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance stemming from the Oct. 2 close of $4.32 1/2, which is reinforced by $4.35. Support comes in at the psychological $4.25 mark then $4.21 1/2.

SOYBEANS: January soybean futures continue to work higher. Overnight strength was limited by resistance stemming from the Oct. 24 high of $10.18, which is backed by the psychological $10.25 mark. Support comes in at $10.05 then $10.00 on renewed selling pressure.

WHEAT: December SRW futures continue to chop sideways. Resistance stems from $5.80, which has capped gains the past couple of weeks, though additional resistance at the 40-day moving average at $5.77 1/4 lies on the way. Support stems from $5.68 then yesterday’s low of $5.62.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Mixed.

HOGS: Choppy/higher.

CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mixed tone as prices continue to chop near recent lows. Cattle futures have seen little movement following last week’s selloff. Steep discounts to the cash market are likely to limit selling pressure, barring any steep downturn in the cash market, which seems unlikely at this juncture. Wholesale beef prices are limiting buyer interest as packer margins narrow. Choice cutout dropped $1.62 to $315.59 while Select sunk $2.04 to $283.20 Wednesday. USDA reported net beef sales of 8,000 MT for 2024 — a marketing year low.

HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, driven by continued strength in the cash market. Traders grew wary of carrying short positions as the cash market continues to climb, with the CME lean hog index rising another 45 cents to $90.24 as of Nov. 5, $8.115 above yesterday’s closing price in December hogs. The pork cutout market has shown modest signs of weakness but still remains near recent highs. Cutout was up 72 cents to $102.15 Wednesday, led by gains in bellies, though movement dipped to 266.66 loads. USDA reported net pork sales reductions of 14,700 MT for 2024, a marketing-year low, driven by reductions from Mexico and China.