Ahead of the Open | November 5, 2024

Corn soybeans and wheat pivoted near unchanged most of the overnight session though saw an increase in buying pressure late in the session, each going into the break on session highs.

Pro Farmer's Ahead of the Open
Pro Farmer’s Ahead of the Open
(Pro Farmer)

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.

Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents higher.

Wheat: SRW 4 to 6 cents higher; HRW 7 to 9 cents higher; HRS 5 to 7 cents higher.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn soybeans and wheat pivoted near unchanged most of the overnight session though saw an increase in buying pressure late in the session, each going into the break on session highs. Trade today is likely to be largely dictated by positioning as woes surrounding the election have traders skittish. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher and near recent highs while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 200 points lower.

USDA reported daily sales of 124,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Today is Election Day, with tight races for the presidency and House, while Republicans are expected to gain a slight majority in the Senate. If you have not done so already, Pro Farmer encourages you to vote.

Commodity brokerage StoneX lowered its U.S. corn production estimate to 15.193 billion bu. (15.222 billion bu. in October) on a yield of 183.7 bu. per acre, down 0.3 bu. from last month. StoneX cut its soybean crop estimate to 4.539 billion bu. (4.613 billion bu. in October) on a yield of 52.6 bu. per acre, down 0.9 bu. from last month. The firm’s estimates are based on surveys of its customers and assume USDA’s harvested acreage.

USDA rated the winter wheat crop 41% “good” to “excellent,” and 23% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop inched up 0.4 point to 308.3. The SRW rating improved 6.9 points, led by a 3.2-point increase in top SRW producer Illinois. The CCI ratings are still below year-ago by 12.7 points for HRW and 8.2 points for SRW. Click here for details.

Weather conditions improved across central Brazil over the past week. As a result, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian crop estimates at 165 MMT for soybeans and 125 MMT for corn. He has a neutral bias toward both crops but says if weather continues to improve, that could switch to neutral/higher for soybeans. Cordonnier kept his Argentine crop estimates at 57 MMT for soybeans and 48 MMT for corn, as weather improved in the country’s core production region.

CORN: December corn futures boasted modest gains overnight. Prices broke above downtrend resistance overnight, now marking initial support at $4.16. Bulls next objective is challenging resistance at $4.21 1/4, while selling pressure finds firmer support at the 40-day moving average at $4.13 1/2.

SOYBEANS: January soybean futures continue to challenge 20-day moving average resistance, which has capped gains the past two sessions. That resistance stands at $10.04 1/4 and is reinforced by $10.18. Support comes in at $9.94 then Friday’s low of $9.88 3/4.

WHEAT: December SRW futures saw heightened buying interest late in the overnight session. Resistance stands at $5.77 1/2, the 40-day moving average, while support stands at $5.72 then yesterday’s low of $5.65.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Choppy/higher.

HOGS: Choppy/lower.

CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as Friday’s low in the December contract continues to support prices. December futures saw followthrough selling pressure on Monday though remained within Friday’s range. Last week’s cash cattle average fell 23 cents from the prior week to $189.82, though losses were less than expected earlier in the week. Packer margins continue to tighten as wholesale beef prices pull back, which is likely to encourage packers to be patient with bids this week. Beef cutout did bounce on Monday, with Choice cutout climbing 57 cents to $316.91 and Select firming $2.13 to $287.16.

HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of Monday’s selling pressure. December lean hogs continue to butt up against stiff technical resistance at $84.50, which capped gains each of the past four sessions. Traders are anticipating an end to the contra-seasonal strength in the cash market as December lean hog futures finished Monday at a $6.155 discount to today’s cash quote, which is up another 82 cents to $89.38 as of Nov. 1. Pork cutout rose 4 cents to $104.01 Monday, led by strength in loins, though movement slowed to 272.8 loads.