Ahead of the Open | November 4, 2024

Soybeans led strength overnight with corn following to the upside. Wheat traded higher early in the session, though selling interest picked up as the session went on.

Pro Farmer's Ahead of the Open
Pro Farmer’s Ahead of the Open
(Pro Farmer)

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.

Soybeans: 10 to 12 cents higher.

Wheat: SRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRW 4 to 6 cents lower; HRS 3 to 5 cents lower.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight with corn following to the upside. Wheat traded higher early in the session, though selling interest picked up as the session went on. Outside markets are supportive this morning, as front-month crude oil futures surged higher on reports OPEC has extended production cuts and the U.S. dollar index is around 600 points lower.

USDA reported daily sales of 150,000 MT corn for delivery to Mexico, 120,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations and 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations—each during the 2024-25 marketing year.

The U.S. elections on Tuesday will take center stage, though it could take days or weeks to decide some of the races. It’s a tight race for president and control of the House, while Republicans are expected to win the Senate. It’s a busy week aside from the elections. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates 25 basis points following its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday. USDA will release its 10-year baseline projections on Thursday and the November crop reports featuring updated production forecasts for corn and soybeans on Friday.

David Wasserman, election analyst for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, told us on presidential contest: “As you know, a week ago I considered Trump a 60%-40% favorite. But Trump has had a terrible past week between ‘floating garbage,’ ‘taking care of women whether they like it or not,’ water fluoridation, etc. Might still give him a tiny edge but outlook has tightened considerably the more off-message he’s been.”

After the slowest start to Brazil’s soybean planting season since 2020-21, a surge the past two weeks has now become the second fastest pace. As of last Thursday, AgRural said Brazil’s soybean planting reached 54% of planted area, up 18 percentage points for the week and three points ahead of last year. Corn planting advanced to 59%, seven points behind year-ago. Brazil’s rainfall during the weekend was widespread from Rio Grande do Sul to southwestern Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul. Amounts were varied across Mato Grosso.

CORN: December corn futures traded higher overnight, though gains stalled at downtrend resistance stemming from the October high. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at the Oct. 24 close at $4.21 1/2, which coincides with the 100-day moving average. Support comes in at $4.13 1/4, the 40-day moving average, then $4.09 1/4.

SOYBEANS: January soybean futures led strength overnight. Initial resistance stems from Friday’s high of $10.08 3/4 then the Oct. 24 high of $10.18. Support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $9.97 1/4 then $9.88 1/4 on a reversal lower.

WHEAT: December SRW futures continue to butt up against downtrend resistance stemming from the October high. Prices have traded above but close below that resistance the past three sessions, which currently stands at $5.67. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $5.63 1/2 then $5.57 3/4 on continued selling pressure.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Choppy/higher.

HOGS: Choppy/lower.

CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open mostly higher in a continuation of Friday’s late price rebound. December live cattle futures traded to the lowest mark in a month on Friday morning, but corrective buying amidst stronger-than-expected trade in the cash market limited losses. Cash cattle prices are poised to fall for the first time in eight weeks, though the drop is less than was expected early last week. Meanwhile, the wholesale beef market continues to leek lower, with Choice cutout falling $1.26 to $316.34 and Select sinking 34 cents to $285.03 Friday.

HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as December futures remain overbought and are struggling to overcome technical resistance. The contract has butted up against $84.50 for three consecutive sessions, unable to close above it. Meanwhile, the CME lean hog index continues to strengthen, rising another 63 cents to $88.56 as of Oct. 31, the 11th consecutive daily gain and the highest level since Aug. 21. Pork cutout continues to firm contra-seasonally as well, rising 82 cents to $103.97 Friday, led by strength in bellies and hams.