Ahead of the Open | November 27, 2024

Soybeans led corrective strength overnight with corn following to the upside. Wheat fell under selling pressure, though buying efforts picked up into the break.

Pro Farmer's Ahead of the Open
Pro Farmer’s Ahead of the Open
(Pro Farmer)

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.

Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents higher.

Wheat: Winter wheat steady to 2 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led corrective strength overnight with corn following to the upside. Wheat fell under selling pressure, though buying efforts picked up into the break. Volume is expected to be light today, but high open interest in December corn could lead to volatility considering Friday is first notice day. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 800 points lower.

USDA reported daily export sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Grain and livestock markets will trade normal hours today. Markets and government offices are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. As a result, there will be no Pro Farmer market updates tomorrow. On Friday, markets are open for an abbreviated trading session from 8:30 a.m. to 12:05 p.m. CT. Due to the shortened schedule, we will only send out two reports – “First Thing Today” Friday morning around 8:00 CT and “After the Bell” briefly highlighting the day’s price action after the closes. Happy Thanksgiving from your Pro Farmer staff.

President-elect Donald Trump selected Jamieson Greer to serve as the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). Greer was chief of staff for Robert Lighthizer, who was Trump’s USTR in his first administration. Lighthizer is expected to play a significant role in shaping trade policy, although his exact position if any remains uncertain. Greer has advocated for a strategic decoupling from China. He has also called for Congress to revoke Beijing’s “permanent normal trade relations” status and impose new, higher tariffs on Chinese goods. In testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Greer provided a roadmap for the policies the new administration might pursue, including action to prevent Chinese companies from relocating to other countries to dodge U.S. tariffs.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum warned Trump of dire economic consequences for both countries from tariffs and suggested possible retaliation following his threat of across-the-board tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada. Mexico and the U.S. are each other’s top trading partners.

CORN: March corn futures posted corrective gains overnight. Initial resistance stems from $4.30 1/2, which is reinforced by the 40-day moving average at $4.33. Support comes in at $4.27 1/2 then yesterday’s low of $4.25 1/2.

SOYBEANS: January soybean futures led strength overnight. Gains stopped shy of the 10-day moving average at $9.91 1/4 overnight, while additional strength targets the psychological $10.00 mark. Support stems from $9.85 then yesterday’s low of $9.76 3/4.

WHEAT: March SRW futures gave up Tuesday’s corrective gain overnight. Continued selling finds support at Monday’s low of $5.50 3/4 then the Nov. 14 low of $5.46 1/4. Resistance stems from the 10-day moving average at $5.63.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Choppy/higher.

HOGS: Choppy/higher.

CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as cash fundamentals have recently favored bulls. Choice cutout continues to rebound, climbing $1.86 to $311.57 on Tuesday, while Select firmed $1.75 to $275.49. Dressed weights have recently fallen sharply from records set just a few weeks ago, which likely contributed last week’s strength in the cash market. Cash negotiations are expected to develop today as packers and feedlots would prefer to get trade out of the way ahead of the holiday. Cash trade so far this week has been light but firmer than a week ago.

HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent technical strength, though waning cash fundamentals are expected to begin to weigh on the market, which could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is down another 56 cents to $85.90 as of Nov. 25, extending the three-week decline. December futures settled just $2.80 below today’s cash quote on Tuesday, indicating traders do not anticipate the recent steep declines to continue into December. Pork cutout sunk $2.18 to $91.15 Tuesday, a fresh for-the-move low as all cuts except picnics posted losses on the day.