GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 7 to 9 cents higher; HRS 9 to 11 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat futures led strength overnight with soybeans showing surprising strength following a gap lower on last night’s open. Corn traded on either side of unchanged with minimal volatility. Outside markets were quiet overnight with front-month crude oil futures trading modestly higher while the U.S. dollar saw early strength, though pared gains and is now near unchanged.
President-elect Donald Trump revealed plans to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, citing concerns over the influx of illegal drugs, according to posts on Truth Social. Additionally, Trump announced a forthcoming 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, linking the decision to issues of immigration and drug trafficking from those countries. “This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” he wrote. “Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!” Trump’s actions demonstrate he is serious about renewing confrontation over a trading system that he believes costs the U.S. dearly. His tariff proposals reflect a continuation of his “America First” policy aimed at reshaping trade dynamics in favor of U.S. interests while addressing complex issues like drug trafficking and immigration. However, the potential economic backlash raises significant concerns among economists and industry leaders.
There is a strong likelihood Trump’s tariffs will provoke retaliatory measures from affected countries, particularly China and Mexico. Such responses could further escalate trade tensions and disrupt existing trade agreements like the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The treaty includes a provision for a review of its terms in 2026. Some also say this indicates Trump may have even broader plans for redoing portions of USMCA under the 2026 review of the trade deal he signed. The Trump team already has been eyeing potential changes designed to prevent China from using Mexico as an export base for its electric vehicles, steel and other goods.
More rains fell across central Brazil last week and are forecast for dry southern areas this week. With the soybean crop off to a strong start, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian production forecast 2 MMT to 168 MMT. He maintains a neutral/higher bias. Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop forecast at 125 MMT with a neutral bias. In Argentina, Cordonnier kept his production forecasts at 57 MMT for soybeans and 48 MMT for corn with a neutral bias toward both crops.
CORN: March corn futures traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Additional weakness finds support at $4.30 then $4.27 1/2. Bulls are seeking to recapture the 40-day moving average at $4.33 1/2, which is backed by resistance at $4.36 1/4.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures rebounded after gapping lower on last night’s open. Gains stopped shy of 10-day moving average resistance at $9.92 1/4. Additional buying targets the psychological $10.00 mark. Support lies at $9.83 then last week’s for-the-move low close of $9.77 3/4.
WHEAT: March SRW futures posted corrective gains overnight. Initial resistance stems from the 10-day moving average at $5.65 3/4, which is quickly backed by downtrend resistance at $5.68 1/2. Support comes in at yesterday’s close of $5.55 3/4 then the psychological $5.50 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of yesterday’s reversal from four-week highs in December fats. Cattle and feeder futures alike surged higher on reports of the New World Screwworm discovery in Mexico, but strength failed to persist throughout the session. Last week’s cash cattle average climbed $1.60 to $186.39, snapping a three-week string of losses. Wholesale beef prices ended Monday higher, with Choice climbing $2.30 to $309.71 and Select firming $1.67 to $273.74. Beef demand was below average in October as USDA reported beef stocks climbing 19.4 million lbs. from September, above the five-year average increase of 15.5-million lbs., though frozen stocks were still down 3.1% from a year ago.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by climbing pork values. USDA confirmed our suspicion that consumer pork demand was quite robust in October, as the agency reported a drawdown of 32.4 million lbs. in the Cold Storage Report, well above the average drop of 16.8 million lbs. during the month. Pork inventories stood 2.7% below a year ago. Pork cutout rose $1.56 to $93.33 Monday, with all cuts except bellies posting gains. The CME lean hog index is down another 55 cents to $86.46 as of Nov. 22, with recent losses accelerating the seasonal decline.