GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat boasted relative strength overnight while corn and soybeans struggled to follow to the upside. Export sales for the week ended Nov. 14 coming in above week ago is likely to spur some confidence in bulls. Outside markets are supportive this morning as front-month crude oil futures continue to bounce while the U.S. dollar index is trading modestly lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 198,000 MT of soybeans to China, 135,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations and 133,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines — each for delivery during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) targeting Dnipro is a dramatic and provocative move, likely in response to Ukraine’s reported first use of British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles. These missiles, known for their precision and long range, represent a step-up in Ukraine’s military capabilities. President Joe Biden recently shifted policies, now permitting Ukraine to utilize long-range ATACMS missiles and providing anti-personnel landmines, further enhancing Ukraine’s tactical options.
Wheat growers in several exporting countries are reluctant to sell their crops with prices near four-year lows, traders, farmers and millers told Reuters, leaving flour makers with dwindling supplies and vulnerable to any potential upswing in prices. Typically grain processors buy wheat three to four months in advance. But millers in Asia, including Indonesia, the world’s No. 2 wheat importer, are currently covered for about two months. In the Middle East, most grain processors only have up to 45 days of supplies. Along with lack of supply from farmers, high interest rates have deterred millers from stocking up on wheat, leaving them exposed if prices rise.
Export sales for the week ended Nov. 14:
Corn: Net sales of 1.495 MMT for 2024-25, up 14% from the previous week but down 40% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico, unknown destinations and Japan. Sales were in the middle of expectations ranging from 1.0 to 2.2 MMT. Exports totaled 957,000 MT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 1.861 MMT for 2024-25, up 20% from the previous week but down 7% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China and Mexico. Sales topped expectations ranging from 1.0 to 1.6 MMT. Exports totaled 2.448 MMT — a marketing year high, with the bulk of the total being shipped to China.
Wheat: Net sales of 549,600 MT for 2024-25, up 45% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for South Korea. Sales came in the upper end of expectations ranging from 275,000 to 600,000 MT. Exports totaled 133,900 MT, a marketing-year low.
CORN: March corn futures’ range continues to tighten. Strength finds resistance at $4.42 1/4 then the Nov. 8 high of $4.47 3/4. Support stems from the 10-day moving average at $4.37 1/2, which is firmly backed by uptrend support at $4.32 1/2.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures continue to consolidate near recent lows. Initial support stems from yesterday’s low of $9.85 1/4, which is firmly backed by the Oct. 29 low of $9.78 1/2. Resistance stands at the 10-day moving average at $10.00, which capped gains overnight.
WHEAT: March SRW futures continue to show relative strength. Next resistance stands at the 20-day moving average at $5.77 1/2, with resistance at $5.85 above that mark. Support comes in at $5.70 3/4 then $5.66 1/2 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as premiums to the cash market are likely to limit buyer interest. Cash cattle trade has been limited through Wednesday, with packers reluctant to raise bids and feedlots holding out for higher prices following this week’s surge in futures. The bulk of this week’s trade is likely to be pushed to Friday afternoon, common during weeks featuring a Cattle on Feed Report. Wholesale beef prices were lower on Wednesday, with Choice cutout dropping $2.40 to $306.39 and Select sinking 92 cents to $270.99. USDA reported net beef sales of 14,300 MT for 2024, up modestly from a week ago.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as waning cash fundamentals continue to weigh heavily on the market, though discounts to the cash index could limit losses after the open. The CME lean hog index is down another 26 cents to $87.83 as of Nov. 19, the eighth decline in the last nine days. While daily losses haven’t been severe, the seasonal decline has become persistent after a later-than-normal start. Pork cutout sunk 8 cents to $94.60 Wednesday, led lower by bellies and hams. USDA reported net pork sales of 18,100 MT for 2024, down 9% from the previous week but steady with the four-week average.