GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 7 to 9 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents lower; HRW steady to 2 cents higher; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led weakness overnight, with corn and wheat following to the downside. Buying interest in wheat picked up into the break. Outside market influence remains fairly subdued, with front-month crude oil futures trading modestly higher and the dollar around 350 points higher, negating the last few days of weakness.
USDA reported daily sales of 202,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 226,200 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations — each during the 2024-25 marketing year.
This decision follows the embassy receiving specific intelligence suggesting an imminent threat, prompting officials to instruct embassy staff to shelter in place and advising U.S. citizens in Ukraine to be prepared for immediate shelter if an air alert is issued. This warning comes just a day after Ukraine launched American-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles into Russian territory for the first time, marking a significant shift in military engagement authorized by President Joe Biden. The strikes targeted a weapons warehouse in Russia’s Bryansk region, which has heightened fears of retaliation from Moscow. However, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia would “do everything possible” to avoid a nuclear war.
Russian farmers say they will sow less wheat after heavy losses this year, switching to more profitable crops such as peas, lentils, or sunflowers, Reuters reported. Winter wheat plantings likely declined by 10% to the lowest since 2019, according to Rusagrotrans, Russia’s primary grain rail carrier. Some farmers say they have already decided to plant less spring wheat next year. Others are waiting to see how global wheat prices perform in the next few weeks before making a final decision.
The U.S. could impose nearly 40% tariffs on imports from China early next year, a Reuters poll of economists showed, potentially slicing growth in the world’s second-biggest economy by up to 1 percentage point. The poll, the first on China’s economy by Reuters since Donald Trump’s election victory on Nov. 5, predicts the president-elect will resist starting off with blanket 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, as he has threatened. The poll predicted new U.S. tariffs would reduce China’s 2025 economic growth by around 0.5 to 1.0 percentage point.
CORN: December corn futures saw followthrough selling overnight. Support at the 10-day moving average at $4.25 limited losses overnight, while continued selling finds support at $4.22 1/4. Resistance comes in at $4.29 1/2, which is firmly backed by $4.31.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures continued lower overnight. Modest support at $9.89 limited losses overnight, while continued selling finds strong support at $9.85. Resistance stands at the psychological $10.00 mark then the 40-day moving average at $10.12
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw resurgent selling pressure overnight. Continued selling pressure finds support at $5.40, while steeper selling finds support at $5.25. Resistance stands at $5.50 then the 20-day moving average at $5.58 1/2, which capped gains yesterday.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s technical strength. December live cattle futures broke out of a downtrend stemming back to late October, negating bears’ recent advantage and placing nearby futures above the cash market for the first time in weeks. Cash cattle trade has been slow to start the week with very little trade taking place. Choice cutout climbed $1.51 to $308.79 while Select dropped $3.54 to $271.91, bringing the Choice/Select spread to a wide $36.88.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, driven by weaker cash fundamentals, though steep discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. The CME lean hog index is down another 40 cents to $88.09 as of Nov. 18, the seventh decline in the last eight days during which the index has dropped $2.52. Pork cutout fell $2.39 to $94.68 yesterday, driven by losses in picnics and bellies. Meanwhile, movement improved to an impressive 393.37 loads, indicating strong demand at weaker prices.