GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 3 to 5 cents higher; HRW 4 to 6 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each opened higher overnight, though corn and beans struggled to maintain early overnight gains. Outside markets yielded little influence over the grain markets overnight. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 120 points lower. Long-term bond yields continue to tick up, which captured the attention of equity traders late last week, bringing concerns over the return of heightened inflation.
USDA reported daily sales of 261,264 MT of soybeans for delivery to Mexico, 135,000 MT of soybean meal and 30,000 MT of soyoil for delivery to India — each during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Rains are expected today across the central U.S., though Colorado, southwestern Nebraska and far western Kansas will not be included in this storm, according to World Weather Inc. Waves of snow may also impact the upper Midwest during the latter part of this week through next week, although confidence is low. Central Argentina was missed by weekend rain as expected and will remain dry for the next week. Sao Paulo and northern Parana, Brazil are also unlikely to see much rain over the next week to 10 days. Other areas of the two countries should see some rainfall.
Brazil’s soybean planting advanced to 80% of intended area as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, well ahead of 68% on that date last year. AgRural noted, “Crops are developing well throughout the country, but the reduction in rainfall in the South and in part of Mato Grosso do Sul has producers on alert, although it is too early to talk about losses.” Corn planting reached 86% done. AgRural said, “In the South, where planting is complete and there has been less rain, producers are closely monitoring the forecast maps, especially in areas where crops are already in the reproductive phase.”
President-elect Donald Trump continues to swiftly name his Cabinet and leadership roles. The biggest one this week is who will lead Treasury, with that position down to a few people. Other positions could include the U.S. Trade Representative and USDA secretary. Over the weekend we reported that a late name was added to the USDA possibility list: Jimmy Emmons, currently senior vice president of climate-smart programs at Trust In Food, Farm Journal’s sustainable agriculture division.
CORN: December corn futures faced profit taking overnight. A resurgence of strength finds resistance at $4.25 1/2 then $4.31. Continued selling pressure finds support at the 40-day moving average at $4.18.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures gave up most of Friday’s gain overnight. Resistance at the 10-day moving average at $10.02 limited overnight gains. Continues weakness finds support at Thursday’s low of $9.86 1/4 then the Oct. 30 low of $9.77 1/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures gapped higher on the overnight open. Initial resistance stems from $5.42 3/4, which is reinforced by the psychological $5.50 mark. Support lies at $5.36 1/2 then last Thursday’s low of $5.28.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/weaker.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, driven by continued weakness in cash fundamentals, though steep discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. The weekly cash cattle average is poised to fall for the third consecutive week, while wholesale beef values also continue to face pressure. Choice cutout dropped another 46 cents to $303.34 while Select sunk 52 cents to $276.14 Friday. The weakness in cutout has led to packer margins remaining deep in the red, likely limiting packers’ willingness to pay up for cash cattle this week.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a weaker tone, driven by weakness in the CME lean hog index. The CME lean hog index is down another 51 cents to $89.27 as of Nov. 14, the fifth decline in the last six days. Meanwhile, pork cutout surged $3.04 to $97.11 Friday, led by a $18.44 surge in bellies, with ribs, butts and picnics also posting strong gains. Cutout values have become volatile, led by drastic swings in primal bellies, which is likely to lead to continued swings in pork cutout.